94th Academy Awards - Best Original Song

Who doesn’t love a good song? One of the simplest yet paradoxically hardest races to predict is the Original Song race. There are very few precursors for it, and the ones that do exist spread their categories so that a frontrunner can never emerge in a traditional sense. It’s a category where the intangibles are the evidence, and that makes it difficult to predict. It is worth a try though.

“Be Alive” – King Richard

Nominees: DIXSON, Beyoncé Knowles-Carter

One factor that can help win this award is a celebrity, and King Richard‘s got the biggest one in the category for the Queen Bee herself. Despite performing several film songs like “Listen” in Dreamgirls and “Spirit” in Lion King, this is Beyoncé’s first Oscar nomination. “Be Alive” is a stirring and inspiring thesis song for King Richard, and Beyoncé undeniably has the star power to get the award off name recognition.

“Dos Oruguitas” – Encanto

Nominees: Lin-Manuel Miranda

If there’s an “industry” celebrity in the race, it’s Lin Manuel-Miranda. While the most emotional song from the hit Encanto, “Dos Oruguitas” may not have caught the fire of pop culture like “We Don’t Talk About Bruno”, there’s a lyrical and musical beauty to it. When accompanied by the fact that it’s a song that has an actual scene, as opposed to a credit scene, many could want to let this be the way for Miranda to win his EGOT.

“Down to Joy” – Belfast

Nominees: Van Morrison

A song and nominee for the older voters, Belfast has a quietly strong contender on its hand for Van Morrison’s “Down to Joy”. It helps that the song opens Belfast, setting the tone for the film very early and reminding potential voters why they should support Belfast for the top prize. The fact that the Academy is willing to stretch its COVID policy just for the potential of getting the COVID conspiracy theorist Morrison to perform shows that they at least love the song.

“No Time to Die” – No Time to Die

Nominees: Billie Eilish, Phineas O’Connell

In recent years, the Bond franchise has had very good luck at the Academy Awards in Original Song. No Time to Die may repeat that success, having a solid combination. Billie Eilish is a Grammy-winning artist, while “No Time to Die” has earned the two primary precursor hardware (Golden Globe and Hollywood Music in Media Awards). With the benefit of the Bond franchise at her back, Eilish and O’Connell have a potent combination to earn her reward.

“Somehow You Do” – Four Good Days

Nominees: Diane Warren

Diane Warren has been nominated for 12 Academy Awards prior, making “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days her 13th. She’s been overdue for decades, but the unfortunate reality is that the competition is too heavy for her to breakthrough and make this her rightfully earned Oscar. As great as it would be to see an industry veteran get their reward, Diane Warren will have to be breaking some precedent and minds if she manages to win with this.

There isn’t enough evidence to declare a winner with any level of success. Everyone has a story to tell, both in their respective films and the awards campaign, so no one has a decisive edge. Billie Eilish has the most precedent on her side, with the backing of Bond’s recognition and some awards, but she’s competing against the industry’s love for Warren, the higher profiles of Beyoncé and Miranda, and Van Morrison representing a Best Picture contender. It’s guaranteed to be a close race, and a surprise is just waiting to occur.

Will Win: “No Time to Die” – No Time to Die
Could Win: “Dos Oruguitas” – Encanto
Should Win: “No Time to Die” – No Time to Die
Should’ve Been Nominated: “Guns Go Bang” – The Harder They Fall