94th Academy Awards Predictions

From the vibrant deserts of Arrakis to the multiversal saga of new and old heroes, the nominees for the 94th Academy Awards each bring the unique aesthetic of their worlds and stories to life. The Academy Award for Best Visual Effects represent these dynamic achievements of filmmaking. However, only one can win. In this first part of the breakdown of all feature film categories, we’ll talk about each individual film’s merits and chances of winning, as well as a bit of my own preference and the precedent of the category.

Dune

Nominees: Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, Gerd Nefzer

Scene That Should Win: Fall of House Atreides

Dune winning Best Visual Effects feels like one of the safest bets. From a historical standpoint, Best Picture nominees rarely lose when they’re in this category. The rare exception (Ex Machina in 2015) can be blamed on Best Picture nominees splitting the vote. In 2015, it was Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, and The Martian. With that in mind, Dune makes for a worthy winner as well. From the massive sandworms of Arrakis’ deserts to the brutal, epic action of space-age warfare, Denis Villeneuve’s science fiction is an undeniable visual feast.

Free Guy

Nominees: Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, Dan Sudick

Scene That Should Win: Guy Discovers the Inventory

Every year, while the superheroes, populist Oscar bait, and cerebral sci-fi fests compete to win, there’s always one surprise film that sneaks in. This year, it was the surprise box office smash Free Guy. It’s claimed that the visual effects bake-off highlighted the creation of Dude, but I personally prefer how the team brought Free City to life. Every mission prompt, glimpse into the video game perspective, and pop-up item purchase makes Free Guy look exactly like the aesthetic it seeks to create. If there was a higher possibility of vote splitting, an Ex Machina-style upset might be possible, but that’s unlikely. Free Guy is nevertheless one of the more inspired nominations this year, which is fitting for the surprise smash of the summer.

No Time to Die

Nominees: Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner, and Chris Corbould

Scene That Should Win: Forest Ambush

Even if it doesn’t win, No Time to Die has earned its place in Bond history just by being nominated. It’s the first film of the franchise to be nominated in this category since 1980 (Moonraker), a feat not even accomplished by the five-time nominee Skyfall in 2012. In a year without Dune, No Time to Die‘s action would also fit in the mold of previous winners like Tenet and Blade Runner 2049, as a high concept sci-fi action piece.

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Nominees: Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker, Dan Oliver

Scene That Should Win: Wenwu vs. Ying Li

I’m not the biggest fan of Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings being nominated. The stunt choreography is a marvel (pun intended) of practical effects, and the Ten Rings themselves are some of the most interesting weapons of modern blockbusters. That being said, its CGI effects are a bit run-of-the-mill for the superhero genre. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings feels like the most difficult to find a case for its inclusion, unlike the Best Picture nominee Dune or the franchise game-changers like No Time to Die or Spider-Man: No Way Home, but that’s hardly a mark against its quality.

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Nominees: Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, Dan Sudick

Scene That Should Win: Mirror Dimension Fight

Oh, Spider-Man: No Way Home, the most successful and infamous film of 2021. Even its detractors highlight that the newest webslinging adventure features some of the most vibrant and ambitious effects of the MCU. That last part is what Spider-Man: No Way Home has going against it. The MCU has yet to win an Academy Award for Visual Effects. The intense debate around Spider-Man: No Way Home‘s exclusion in Best Picture could be a tempting thing in its favor as reconciliation, but if the history-making of Black Panther or the franchise narrative of Avengers: Endgame couldn’t get Oscars then it’s unlikely that Spider-Man: No Way Home will break that streak.

As I said in its section, this is one of the (likely many) awards that will go towards Dune. In a world where its the sole Best Picture nominee of the batch, as well as the praise Dune has received, there isn’t a firm competitor to take its place or siphon votes. It would break some powerful precedent for something else to win, but No Time to Die or Spider-Man: No Way Home have been doing so. Why stop now? There are narratives, but not ones compelling enough to bet against the smart move.

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: No Time to Die
Should Win: Dune
Should’ve Been Nominated: Godzilla vs. Kong