Awards Season Check-Up: Belfast Takes Early Lead Pre-NYFF

As of Saturday evening, the first round of Fall festivals has concluded. With Telluride, Venice, and Toronto behind us, the first phase of awards season is approaching its end. While the New York Film Festival will see the premiere of other hopefuls, including The Tragedy of Macbeth from Joel Coen and Tick, Tick…Boom! from Lin-Manuel Miranda, most major awards that many knew were coming have now been seen. It seems as good a time as any to take stock of the big races and see if we can tell where the wind will blow.

A disclaimer: I predict the future, but I don’t see it. Expect things to change rapidly over the course of several months, and given my luck, this article will be rendered obsolete within the week. It’s also worth stating that this is not a matter of personal opinion. I haven’t seen any of the films likely to be discussed, so my opinion is based on word of mouth and my knowledge of the awards season patterns. With that said, let’s begin.

In the Best Picture race, an early frontrunner has emerged in Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical, coming-of-age drama, Belfast. The film has all the markers of a Best Picture Winner and is focused on Buddy and his family during the Troubles in 1960’s Ireland. A historical setting, a cast of well-liked actors, a deeply personal project for a director, and black-and-white cinematography are the kinds of things awards voters eat up.

History is on Belfast‘s side. The film premiered at Telluride, a vital step for any Oscar hopeful, as discussed last time. It also won the People’s Audience Award at TIFF, a prize that last year’s Best Picture Winner Nomadland took home as well.

That being said, ask nominees like 2016’s La La Land and 2014’s Boyhood how being the early frontrunner went. A hot streak this bright results in a target on the back, and I expect Belfast‘s early praise to result in some kind of discourse over the season.

In regards to big films that gained wider attention, there is Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, which is a period piece with Benedict Cumberbatch reportedly at his best. There is also Reinaldo Marcus Green’s King Richard, a crowd-pleasing sports biopic starring Will Smith. Dune and Last Night in Soho premiered as well, but only the former seems to possess the right mixture of critical quality and box office potential to be the genre film to make awards.

Speaking of the Fresh Prince, King Richard received a warm reception from Telluride. While the film is said to have strong chances in multiple categories, Will Smith has arrived as a dominating frontrunner with a narrative few could compete with. Like many Best Actor winners, Will Smith is performing a real-life person in a biopic, changing his appearance and voice in a way critics and his fellow actors could appreciate.

Smith’s going to be in the public soon, with his autobiography premiering in November right around awards season and a variety show special on its way to Netflix. Combine all of this with an overdue narrative and thirty years of built-up celebrity, and Smith’s going to be tough to beat.

Of course, nothing is locked and there are going to be contenders that might put up a fight. As previously mentioned, Benedict Cumberbatch is said to be delivering his best performance yet in The Power of the Dog. Telluride also saw two dark horse contenders emerge, although the nature of the projects might be difficult.

Peter Dinklage received raves for Cyrano, but the film’s early critical reviews from Telluride were mixed. Joaquin Phoenix also showed his newest film from A24, C’mon C’mon, but the film’s smaller nature and Phoenix’s penchant for not campaigning could hurt his chances.

Best Actress has always been a cutthroat competition, and this year seems to be no exception. Two leading ladies have emerged as the ones to beat, each with something going for and against them, Kristen Stewart in Spencer and Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. The similarities between the two are common features of a Best Actress winner, a transformative biopic of a woman with a troubled personal life, and large celebrity. Stewart and Chastain have both scored rave reviews, the former going to TIFF and Telluride, and the latter only appearing at TIFF before going to the box office last weekend.

In terms of flaws, Spencer‘s early reviews have raved about it but also indicate a film that might be a bit too idiosyncratic for the industry awards taste. While Stewart might be undeniable as a performer and for a nomination, it always helps to be part of an across-the-board success. The Eyes of Tammy Faye hasn’t been as widely embraced by critics, but many have cited Chastain’s talents and several other viable aspects of the film.

These include makeup, her co-star Andrew Garfield, and a potential Adapted Screenplay nomination in a weaker year for the category. Other contenders that have now been seen include Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter, Catriona Balfe in Belfast (where she could end up going lead or supporting), and Penelope Cruz, who won Venice’s Volpi Cup for Best Actress in Parallel Mothers.

Supporting races always tend to be up in the air unless someone truly undeniable is getting attention. In the Supporting Actor category, Andrew Garfield received great reviews for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. There’s also potential that this, plus the attention he may receive for Tick, Tick…Boom! results in a double nomination for the Englishman. Jamie Dornan and Ciarán Hinds each received their fair share of praise for Belfast, while Bradley Cooper has the best narrative in the still unseen Licorice Pizza from Paul Thomas Anderson.

Supporting Actress has multiple contenders, but none feels like a lock yet. Kirsten Dunst was praised for her work in The Power of the Dog, which has Best Picture heat, but most attention was put on her co-star Cumberbatch or director Jane Campion. Judi Dench and the previously mentioned Balfe may be competing with each other for Belfast, while Sundance produced great works from Marlee Matlin in CODA and Ann Dowd in Mass that could survive the whole year.

There remains one thing that needs to be said, festivals are just part one. Plenty of films choose to skip the festival circuit entirely and end up securing a spot in critics’ and viewers’ hearts. Netflix’s highest-profile contender remains Don’t Look Up, with an all-star ensemble including Jennifer Lawrence, Leonardo DiCaprio, Meryl Streep, Jonah Hill, and Rob Morgan from the previous winner Adam McKay. Past winners Guillermo del Toro and Steven Spielberg will have their remakes skipping the festival circuit and premiering in December, with del Toro’s Nightmare Alley and Spielberg’s West Side Story being the big projects waiting to be seen.

Overlooked filmmakers will also be skipping the festivals, including Paul Thomas Anderson and his newly titled Licorice Pizza. Anderson has yet to win an Academy Award in any category, so his time may be approaching. Another veteran is Ridley Scott who, despite a five-decade career filled with classics, has never won an Academy Award. While The Last Duel‘s reviews were good but not great from Venice, Scott will also be releasing House of Gucci, which appears to be outside Scott’s traditional work and could be his chance to see the sun. The point is no one knows until everyone knows (and ask La La Land, sometimes not even then).