Year in Advance Predictions - Killers of the Flower Moon

This article continues our coverage of the Year in Advance series, which includes several breakdowns of exciting films coming down the pipe in 2022. Part of this effort is a genuine attempt at predicting for next year’s Oscars. More importantly, this is my version of advocating for films. Whether it be to awards voters suffering from short-term memory loss to audiences looking for what to be excited about, a year-in-advance breakdown helps someone in the movie theater experience.

Fresh off their Best Picture win, AppleTV has another heavy contender on its hands with Killers of the Flower Moon. Martin Scorsese’s newest film and first Western has a recipe for a classic Best Picture winner, with several past winners and nominees above and below the line. Sight unseen there’s no reason to suspect that Killers of the Flower Moon will fail, especially with as many names in the mix as it has.

Pros

Martin Scorsese is a director who is always contending for Oscars, even if his actual track record is spotty. Killers of the Flower Moon is no exception, especially as Scorsese seems to be entering a new phase of his career. While it is apparently another crime movie from 79-year old director, Killers of the Flower Moon will likely make use of the new genre to display his legendary talents.

Staying above-the-line, it’ll be interesting to see how the acting race goes for Killers of the Flower Moon. There are conflicting reports on whether Jesse Plemons will be sole lead or will split with Leonardo DiCaprio. Either way, they’ll surely be on the hunt. Among the supporting cast of Killers of the Flower Moon, any one of the veteran actors could be selected. Beloved character actress Lily Gladstone could become the first Indigenous acting nominee since 2018, and first in Supporting Actress since 1966.

Eric Roth is another beloved industry veteran, having just been nominated for Dune last year. It has been said that Roth and Scorsese have elevated the book by translating it to the screen for a more respectful and progressive approach. Killers of the Flower Moon could’ve been handled poorly as a story of the Osage told by a white man, so depending on the project the endorsement from those depicted could bolster its campaign.

Below the line, several artisans looking for overdue rewards could be in the cards for Killers of the Flower Moon. Rodrigo Prieto in particular stands out as the cinematographer, and the expansive depictions of the American Frontier could be the ticket for his win. Thelma Schoonmaker (Scorsese’s long-time editing partner) has three wins to her name, but a fourth could easily be in the cards as well. Production Design and Costume Design are also in play, with Jacqueline West in the latter being overdue as well.

Cons

There’s a lot of anticipation for Killers of the Flower Moon, but hype can quickly become disappointment if the film doesn’t meet expectations. If Killers of the Flower Moon is received more like Silence than The Irishman or The Wolf of Wall Street, it’ll be hard to overcome the far higher standard that Martin Scorsese films have to hold themselves to.

That aspect means nothing if Killers of the Flower Moon ends up being delayed. While it’s known that filming has been wrapped and Scorsese has said it’s almost done in the editing room, Killers of the Flower Moon could and should be held back if Scorsese feels it’s not ready. Both of his previous films were delayed one year later than first announced, so a third time wouldn’t be surprising.

Scorsese isn’t a stranger to controversy, from his comments about superhero cinema to the often visceral content of his films. Killers of the Flower Moon is likely to weather some type of debate, especially for the previously mentioned representation aspects. Even with the full-fledged support of the Osage people, Martin Scorsese could be seen as someone who shouldn’t have told this story. That is an aspect that could spiral if the film isn’t up to snuff.

Killers of the Flower Moon might also face a problem if it’s seen as too cerebral or slow. Scorsese’s reputation as a master of the gangster film has hurt him before, with both Silence and The Irishman catching casual viewers by surprise with their more reflective style. While I personally love what Scorsese’s been doing, others have not. At least, that’s the case if one reads anything into The Irishman‘s 10 nominations and no wins or Silence‘s sole cinematography nomination.

As someone who loves Martin Scorsese, and views him as the greatest filmmaker of all time, I recognize that his late-career is a direction that not everyone enjoys. Killers of the Flower Moon is unlikely to break this path for the director, which could help or hurt it. Regardless of that aspect, Killers of the Flower Moon gets the benefit of being one of the most anticipated films of the year with its stacked cast and crew. Even if it fails to meet every expectation, it’s hard to imagine Killers of the Flower Moon not being among the best of the year and honored as such.