Awards Season Check-Up - Oscar Voting Officially Begins

On January 27th, nominations for Academy Award voters were officially sent out. The nomination process lasts until February 1st, with nominations announced on February 8th. It signals the end of an incredibly important week for awards voting, with every major guild except for BAFTA announcing their own nominations. Some things took big hits, others got major lifts, and everything in between. Let’s check back in.

Last time this we caught up with the season, Being the Ricardos and CODA were big winners, while Belfast and The Power of the Dog each took some dings. This week’s biggest victims were West Side Story, which took heavy blows below the line, and Spencer, proving itself to likely be Kristen Stewart or bust. Winners for the week are Dune and tick, tick…BOOM!, each of whom built momentum thanks to late-stage guild announcements.

The first of recent developments was in Production Design when the Set Decorators Society of America (SDSA) weighed in on January 17th. They were followed by the Art Directors Guild (ADG) one week later. West Side Story, Steven Spielberg’s adaptation of the pinnacle musical, only showed up at the ADG, as did Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch. House of Gucci, Being the Ricardos, and The Power of the Dog were only selected at the SDSA

Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza were the only two period feature films to show up at both, with this genre being where most future nominees are. There are exceptions when certain fantasy films prove themselves, including the lauded Dune. More on Dune further on, but these three seem to be safe by virtue of showing up at both guilds.

The Visual Effects Society released its nominations on January 18th. Unsurprising inclusions include Best Picture contender Dune, as well as blockbusters hoping to sneak into that tenth spot such as No Time to Die and Spider-Man: No Way Home. Other potential nominees could include The Matrix Resurrections and Godzilla vs. Kong, which would fit traditional molds.

The Bond films have had a terrible record with the visual effects category, with none of the Craig era being nominated at the Academy. The MCU has likewise had a mediocre time at the Oscars, with multiple nominees but no winners yet. When there’s a potential Best Picture winner like Dune competing, it’s difficult to see anyone else winning (although much the same was said about Mad Max: Fury Road in 2015). These two plus Dune ought to be considered safe for Visual Effects, although No Time to Die definitely borders.

Since 2020, the Sound Mixers and Sound Editors branches combined into a single category, Best Sound. One-half of that category is represented by the Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) Awards, which represent sound editors. The other half is represented by the Cinema Audio Society (CAS), which represents sound mixers. Dune, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and No Time to Die all showed up, ensuring these three are safe for the Best Sound category.

Notable inclusions include A Quiet Place Part II, the sequel to 2018 nominee A Quiet Place which showed up at the MPSE, as did Nightmare Alley and Best Picture contender Belfast. The latter’s chief competitor, The Power of the Dog, showed up at CAS, as did West Side Story. Every shortlisted film, which also includes two musicals tick, tick…BOOM! and West Side Story, was nominated by at least one of the two groups. Those remaining two slots are thus anyone’s game.

The remaining below-the-line guild that was released before Thursday was the Costume Designers Guild (CDG). It’s a bit more difficult to parse through, as the costume branch of the Academy has been known to dip into multiple genres. That being said, there are a couple that at least look safe. Potential Best Picture nominees Dune, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley, and West Side Story all secured nominations. Cruella, a film about the fashion industry itself, ironically feels the safest for the win despite its early release and more commercial appeal.

This was followed by the American Society of Cinematographers, who announced their nominations on January 25th. This is a category that can often influence Best Director. This was the largest blow against West Side Story, with six-time Academy Award nominee and two-time winner Janusz Kamiński missing what should’ve been a slam dunk nomination. He was excluded in favor of Nightmare Alley‘s Dan Lausten, whose work was nominated alongside Belfast, Dune, The Power of the Dog, and The Tragedy of Macbeth.

A noticeable missing entry in any of the previous guilds has been Spencer, the biopic of Diana Spencer led by Kristen Stewart. While it was always an eccentric sell for Best Picture, many had expected it to put up a fighting chance in Costumes, Sound, and Cinematography. Without those, plus Stewart’s exclusion at SAG, Spencer could end up being left outside of the Oscars.

In contrast, Dune proved itself the biggest winner of this week. The Sci-Fi epic has shown up at every single guild that announces nominees, including the groups below. No other film that is a serious Best Picture contender can claim that, and it gives gravity to the belief that it may have become more than just a nominee. Genre bias is heavy in the Academy, but Dune could break a streak that hasn’t been broken since the 1991 Horror film The Silence of the Lambs.

On the same day nominations opened, multiple above-the-line guilds announced their nominations. The Writers Guild of America, the union representing writers, bolstered several contenders. Dune, tick, tick…BOOM!, and West Side Story, all films that would’ve had the hardest time in screenplay, were nominated in Adapted Screenplay. While the frontrunner (The Power of the Dog) had been omitted due to nominating rules, these nominations nevertheless solidify those three as Best Picture nominees. Dune showed up at the USC Scripter Awards as well, which have honored multiple Adapted Screenplay winners until 2018.

The WGA’s Original Screenplay nominations were tamer, with multiple Academy favorites such as frontrunner Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) and two-time winner Aaron Sorkin (Being the Ricardos) showing up. Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) and Wes Anderson (The French Dispatch) were also nominated by the WGA, as has Best Picture hopeful King Richard. One of these three may be swapped out for the ineligible Belfast or they could replace it to topple its status as frontrunning contender.

The Directors Guild of America (DGA) also released their nominees, with the five frontrunners all making it into the nominations. Frontrunner Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story), and Denis Villeneuve (Dune) have long been considered the main five of the race.

However, the DGA is also infamous for being exactly 4 for 5 on Academy nominations. The two organizations have not matched since 2009, over a decade ago. The question then becomes who of the five is out, and who takes their place? If someone will, the safe bet is Adam McKay, another Academy favorite. As for who is excluded, only Campion and Villeneuve feel safe enough not to be the ones out.

The final organization worth discussing was the Producers Guild of America (PGA). All of our safe six previously discussed were nominated, while Being the Ricardos, Don’t Look Up, tick, tick…BOOM!, and CODA were the remaining four. The PGA is notable as the organization that, prior to voting changes made with this ceremony, shared the Academy Award’s preferential voting ballot. This has resulted in the ten at PGA often being considered the “ten” of the sliding scale.

While nothing is sealed until nominations are announced, things are starting to cement. While much remains up in the air at this point, the contenders are falling into place. Our coverage will soon go from speculative to predictive, and those that are wondering will get to see my preferences soon. This is the brief gap between discussing nominations and winners, and the awards season has officially reached its peak.