Awards Season Check-Up - Industry Begins to Weigh In

It has been some time since our last awards check-up, and as you’d expect a lot has changed. The Golden Globes were held privately with no Livestream, BAFTA has released their long lists, and the first of industry guilds have started to weigh in. This is a pivotal phase of the awards season, as we transition away from critics awards and into actual Academy voters. With that in mind, let’s check up on who’s still running, who’s been knocked out, and who’s been given a vital shot in the arm.

For a brief version of what had been happening prior to the last month, several races had established frontrunners. The Power of the Dog had shown itself to prove a sturdy contender, leading the front in Best Picture, Jane Campion for Director, and both male acting races. The fourth acting race had its frontrunner in Kristen Stewart’s work in Spencer, while Ariana DeBose has maintained a narrow lead in Supporting Actress for West Side Story.

Then the Golden Globes happened on January 9th. A full list of winners can be found here, but a couple of wrinkles have emerged. While The Power of the Dog still maintained wins in Director, Drama, and Supporting Actor, the film’s star Benedict Cumberbatch faces his first major loss as King Richard‘s Will Smith took home Best Actor in a Drama. This, plus a loss to the film’s perceived chief competitor Belfast in Screenplay, is the first sign of The Power of the Dog‘s potential weaknesses.

The Golden Globes are infamous for strange winners, and this year’s was Nicole Kidman’s surprise upset victory over cultural icons Kristen Stewart and Lady Gaga (nominated for House of Gucci). Being the Ricardos has hardly lit critic awards or the box office on fire, but Kidman’s reliably strong work as television icon Lucille Ball throws a wrench into Stewart’s steamroller of a season so far. It also puts an obstacle in the way of potential upsets from Gaga and The Eyes of Tammy Faye star Jessica Chastain.

For a brief look below the line, the Makeup Artists and Hair Stylists Guild (MAHSG) have also weighed in, which can be found here. While it’s a bit more difficult to get a read on a single guild, these do help provide a glimpse into how craft teams are thinking. Such a glimpse is vital for Best Picture contenders such as House of Gucci and Dune, as films such as these have not garnered as much love above the line as below.

Especially with regards to Dune, No Time to Die, and the box office smash that has been Spider-Man: No Way Home, crafts awards are what keep their names in the running. It’s no coincidence that past genre films that have gotten Best Picture nominations, such as Black Panther in 2018 and Mad Max: Fury Road in 2015. Those examples also ended up sweeping many of the technical awards on Oscar night even if they didn’t take home Best Picture. In this regard, Dune and No Time to Die were the winners of the MAHSG’s, each showing up as much as they could in nominations.

No Time to Die had a particularly good month once the BAFTA’s long lists were announced. The British Academy of Film & Television Arts is the United Kingdom’s version of the Oscars, and thus possesses a vocal share of the Academy’s much larger voting body. No Time to Die was shortlisted in Best Picture alongside Dune, while it likewise showed up in Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Adapted Screenplay above the line. There’s a non-zero chance this ends up just being the British loving Bond, when a field of ten is guaranteed and only six films are “safe”, a box office juggernaut like Bond could sneak his way in.

Speaking of “safe”, I should probably clarify who they are briefly. The Power of the Dog, as a critical darling with some industry heft, is the perceived frontrunner with Belfast and Licorice Pizza right behind it. King Richard and West Side Story, two victims of the COVID-19 era box office, have the prestige and necessary winners with Smith in Lead Actor and DeBose in Supporting Actress, to warrant a safe spot as well. Finally, Dune feels safe, thanks to being a technical juggernaut and the sole film of these six to have what is publicly seen as a successful box office run. Those last four slots have nearly a dozen films duking it out, with CODA and tick, tick…BOOM! bordering slots 7 and 8.

But back to the check-up. The Writers Guild of America (WGA) also released their list of omitted films, and what got cut will be interesting to see develop. The Writers Guild is notorious for only allowing union member scripts to be nominated, which results in many perceived frontrunners in screenplay categories being left out. This year, Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast is the sole notable exclusion in Original Screenplay, clearing the way for Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza to get the biggest screenplay precursor barring surprises.

Adapted Screenplay is a different story entirely. Four films that were expected to be major competitors in the category – The Power of the Dog, Drive My Car, Passing, and The Lost Daughter – were all omitted. With these four films eliminated from consideration, the Writers Guild’s relevance will depend entirely on what gets nominated and what wins in the future. If it’s a non-factor on the race so far, such as The Tender Bar or Nightmare Alley, the race remains unchanged. If something like West Side Story or Dune secures a win, momentum for Jane Campion’s second screenplay Oscar could be stalled.

If WGA threw wrenches into the gears, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) poured on oil and lit a match. Multiple exclusions were present, with the most notable one being a missing Kristen Stewart in Best Lead Actress. This is incredibly important from a stats perspective. Ever since SAG started presenting awards in 1995, there has not been a single winner in a lead race that didn’t receive a nomination from SAG. That’s 27 years of precedent against Kristen Stewart, and with the inclusion of all her most notable competition, including recent Golden Globe winner Kidman, it’s difficult to see a version of this where she wins.

Other notable exclusions include both Golden Globe nominees Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) and Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) in favor of Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos. The two leading men have been duking it out with Nicholas Cage for that fifth slot in Best Actor. Bardem’s surge at SAG could lead to a complication. Ben Affleck and Jared Leto each received a bolster in Best Supporting Actor, while both Belfast men missed out to weaken their chances and make way for Kodi Schmidt-McPhee.

A nomination in the SAG Ensemble category is traditionally a strong indicator of Best Picture potential, although in recent years that has fallen by the wayside. CODA , Don’t Look Up, and House of Gucci making it in all bolster their chances, especially the former as the little indie that could. Notable exclusions from Best Picture heavy hitters like The Power of the Dog, Dune, and West Side Story expose even more chinks in their armor, but it’s not as much an inevitability as it was even five years ago.

As I said, a lot happened over the last month. It’s clear to see that Phase II has comfortably ended, as Phase III has picked up with flair. Frontrunners came and went as the industry starts to weigh in, with only one month left for films to make their case before nomination morning on February 8th. Let’s see what shocks await us by then.