Awards Check-Up - Critics Clear The Way for Early Contenders

It has been one month since our last Awards Check-Up, and already so much has weighed in. As of Monday, 12/13/2021, two major publicist awards (The Golden Globes and Critics Choice) have delivered their nominations to us. Meanwhile, the past two weeks have seen a slew of critic groups weigh in, including the National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics Circle. Although nominations are still months away, the race is already beginning to take shape.

One important distinction needs to be made before we continue: none of these groups are from the industry. While the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice have sway within the industry itself, their voting bodies are not Academy Award voters. Until actual industry guilds like the Screen Actors Guild or the Directors Guild weigh in, nothing is locked completely.

As I initially predicted Netflix’s The Power of the Dog has seen a major rallying cry from the critic groups. Jane Campion’s melodramatic Western is tied for the biggest number of Best Picture awards so far, including the New York Online group and Philadelphia, plus inclusion on the AFI’s Top Ten. It’s hard not to see it as the critical favorite, showing up everywhere it can with a win or a high-placed ranking.

Director Jane Campion and Benedict Cumberbatch are leading in their respective category, as is Campion’s screenplay. Kirsten Dunst looks to be on her way to her first Oscar nomination with a narrow lead in critic groups (with 3 wins so far), while Kodi Schmidt-McPhee has pushed himself over co-star Jesse Plemons in the Supporting Acting race. The film went on to receive seven Golden Globe nominations (one for each eligible category) and 10 Critics Choice nominations.

Kristen Stewart’s expected domination of lead actress awards has emerged, with her work in Spencer having a clear advantage with six wins on the season. Her competition has been spread, with Jessica Chastain’s work in The Eyes of Tammy Faye being the only other actress with two nominations. Lady Gaga for House of Gucci, Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter, Rachel Zegler for West Side Story, Tessa Thompson for Passing, and Penelope Cruz for Parallel Mothers all have one on the board, so who’s going to be next after Stewart is unclear.

In terms of other predictions shaping up to be true, Belfast has had a good but not overwhelming run in the critic circles. It is currently tied with The Power of the Dog for most wins, also showing up in nominations as well. The debate of Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds still remains unsettled for a clear choice to run, while Catriona Balfe becomes the clear pick in Supporting Actress. Belfast‘s initial frontrunner status has now cooled, but with a performance like this it’s still very much locked in to contend at the top.

In other races, critics have rallied for Drive My Car in the international feature category, going well ahead of expected contenders like Flee and Titane. The film submitted by Japan has even shown up in Best Picture lineups, including winning the influential New York Film Critics Circle. In a year with a guaranteed ten and across-the-board love so far, Drive My Car could manage to sneak its way into Best Picture with the passion vote.

The documentary race is a dead even tie so far between Flee and Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Would Not Be Televised). Flee has been slightly boosted by virtue of also contending in Animated Feature and International Feature. However, the celebrity profile of QuestLove could give Summer of Soul the boost it needs to be retained. Of course, Documentary categories are notorious for snubbing the frontrunners. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? and Apollo 11 missed out despite critics group and industry sweeps, so Best Documentary remains unpredictable even with two seemingly clear favorites.

In terms of surprises, CODA has become the indie contender invited over films like C’mon C’mon. The AppleTV film premiered back in Sundance, but star Troy Kutser has been showing up in multiple Supporting Actor races while Emilia Jones is winning the breakthrough star awards. Much like Paul Raci last year for Sound of Metal, Troy Kotsur can bring himself and CODA to Dolby Theater. The fight for CODA was always going to be an issue of getting seen, and a Golden Globe nomination over more famous films like House of Gucci and Being the Ricardos show that it has.

I will also gladly admit to having been wrong about tick, tick…BOOM! and Ben Affleck for The Tender Bar. Lin-Manuel Miranda’s debut has been showing up in Best Picture more times than anticipated by critics, while surprise Editing and Screenplay nominations show a strength I had been worried wouldn’t develop. Meanwhile, Affleck has only shown up at Golden Globes. It’ll take a win there plus a resurgence during the industry phase to get him the nomination.

The Mitchells vs. The Machines may prove capable of beating the Disney machine in Animated Feature, but there are a couple chinks in its armor. Firstly, the aforementioned Flee has been collecting a handful of awards, and critical raves that have kept it afloat in three different categories might siphon off the passion vote. Another contender, Encanto, has emerged as Disney/Pixar’s horse in the race, winning the coveted National Board of Review prize.

The biggest news and flaw for The Mitchells vs. The Machines was on Monday at the Golden Globes. Ever since the Golden Globes have voted for a Best Animated Feature, every Academy Award winner has at least been nominated by the Globes. The Mitchells vs. The Machines was omitted from the Globes’ lineup, putting history firmly against its win. That being said, without a clear runner-up against it, it’s hard to tell what to make of this snub this early.

Can Netflix score its first Best Picture win? Will West Side Story win the big prize again? Could Will Smith finally receive the prestige that has come with his legacy? These are the stories of what history could be made and what records were broken. With the two major non-industry awards having made their voices clear, awards season has truly begun. Critics aren’t Oscar pickers, but they do tend to help out.