Year in Advance Predictions - Elvis

This article continues our coverage of the Year in Advance series, which includes several breakdowns of exciting films coming down the pipe in 2022. Part of this effort is a genuine attempt at predicting next year’s Oscars. More importantly, this is my version of advocating for films. Whether it be to awards voters suffering from short-term memory loss to audiences looking for what to be excited about, a year-in-advance breakdown can help enlighten viewers on what they should be waiting for in theaters.

The King of Rock and Roll, Elvis Presley was a bona fide superstar in music and film. Despite that, Elvis from Baz Luhrmann will somehow be the first theatrical film about the Memphis musician. Starring Austin Butler and releasing in theaters June 24th, Elvis is a biopic that will be sure to astound, even if it doesn’t make Dolby Theater’s stage.

Pros

If the last decade has proven anything, it’s that the Academy loves a good biopic. In classic Luhrmann fashion, Elvis won’t seem to fit the traditional mold that biopics tend to be. Elvis ostensibly presents as a traditional cradle-to-crib story, from childhood to Elvis’s late-career in civil rights. Baz Luhrmann has never been a traditional filmmaker though, and Elvis likely has a couple of surprises up its bell-bottom sleeves. A first-look premiere at Cannes Film Festival lends even more mystique, with Elvis having the potential to be a breakout success.

The biopic has particular luck in the Best Actor category, with Elvis hoping to continue that trend for star Austin Butler. Eight of the last 12 Best Actor winners have been from biopics. Butler appears to be transformative as the King, going under makeup to physically change into Elvis and utilizing his voice as often as Elvis’s. It’s the type of transformative work that could lead to a first-time nomination if he delivers.

Baz Luhrmann is a polarizing figure in the film industry for his idiosyncratic style. Elvis is more traditional fare for the Australian director, but if he makes the transition while retaining his style there could be a narrative to emerge. One thing that seems to remain is Luhrmann’s consistent eye for flair, with Catherine Martin’s costume design and the makeup design looking particularly enticing.

Luhrmann’s overall Academy track record is mixed, but below-the-line he tends to deliver and Elvis shows no sign of being an exception. Every Luhrmann film (except his feature debut) has received at least one nomination, usually in Production Design or Costume Design. Bringing Elvis’ flamboyant and iconic wardrobe to life is going to be enticing to voters, as will the makeup that transformed Butler and Tom Hanks into their respective characters.

Cons

As just mentioned, Luhrmann’s record at the Academy is spotty. His last two attempts at more traditional genres, The Great Gatsby and the historical drama epic Australia, fared poorly at Dolby Theater. Elvis is unlikely to break that streak and receive too much above-the-line, although a bigger profile and a more prestigious premiere at Cannes help its case.

The more telling response will be if Elvis is received poorly by the box office and the critics. The former will be important for Elvis, as successful musical biopics at the Oscars need to prove themselves with audiences. Luhrmann’s tastes have never been mainstream and without a big star like Hugh Jackman or Leonardo DiCaprio, the Elvis name will have to do the heavy lifting if reviews are mixed as they tend to be for Luhrmann.

Once considered the biggest cannon in Elvis‘ arsenal, I am incredibly suspect of the glimpse we’ve seen of Tom Hanks’ Colonel Tom Parker. While the heavy makeup and costume Hanks is beneath visually provides a hint of transformation, the strange voice and personality he’s adopted cause me to raise an eyebrow. If Hanks ends up faltering, Elvis loses a major factor that gets it in front of awards voters once the year ends.

Speaking of timing, Elvis‘ June release date is almost a death sentence awards-wise. Premiering to regular audiences in the throes of summer blockbuster season is going to be difficult for Elvis. Awards voters already have a short-term memory, but if Elvis gets buried by headlines claiming it as a box office bomb then its hopes to truly compete are all but gone.

Baz Luhrmann is a genuinely fascinating director, with Elvis seeming to possess his usual aesthetic of flair and style. While I don’t see it becoming a heavy-hitting contender, Elvis gives me a weird gut feeling regarding its ability to be a breakout hit. Luhrmann never keeps it basic with his films, and I expect that Elvis is going to be another example of Luhrmann going bigger with the already gigantic persona of the King. It’ll be fun to see where Elvis falls, both with audiences and the Academy.