Year in Advance Predictions

While I’m not quite as eager as others to read the tea leaves of the awards season, I do enjoy thinking ahead. Part of this effort is an attempt at predicting for next year’s Oscars. More importantly, this is my version of advocating for films. Whether to awards voters suffering from short-term memory loss or audiences looking for what to be excited about, a year-in-advance breakdown helps someone in the movie theater experience.

Our first entry in this series is The Batman, the first real superhero movie of 2022 and one of the critical darlings of the year so far. It is the eighth film about the Caped Crusader or tenth if you count Batman v. Superman and Justice League. The Batman has raked in both reviews and box office, but can The Batman repeat that success in the awards campaign, or will superhero fatigue prove too much for even the Dark Knight?

Pros

While other blockbusters in the first quarter of the year have gotten good reviews, few have the love or embrace that The Batman has received. Sitting at a solid 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and 72% on Metacritic, The Batman has received praise across the board for nearly every aspect of its creation. Matt Reeves’ superhero film fits the general mold of previous superhero Best Picture nominees like Black Panther and Joker as a fun superhero movie that takes itself artistically seriously.

Tech support is going to be vital for The Batman‘s success in an awards campaign. Heaps of praise have been given to Michael Giacchino, who composed the score. Giacchino has only been nominated twice for an Academy Award, winning in 2010 for Up. A second win is in the cards for him at some point, and The Batman is a great place for him to make a case for it. Greig Fraser just won this year for Dune. Back-to-back wins for cinematographers aren’t unheard of, and the fact that The Batman is one of the most beautiful-looking superhero films in years gives Fraser early momentum.

While The Batman‘s runtime can be a strength or weakness, the editing by William Hoy and Tyler Nelson could be in the cards if The Batman wants to be a heavy contender. Visual Effects and Sound are likely on the table if The Batman can maintain momentum and are two categories that like to reward superhero films with nominations. Costume Design and Makeup & Hairstyling will also be heavy pushes for the Batsuit and the Penguin’s makeup respectively, even if The Batman is more grounded in these aspects compared to other blockbusters coming later in the year.

Above the line, The Batman will need to secure something somewhere if it wants to be in the Best Picture race. While the entire cast has received great reviews, Batman villains, in particular, tend to get support. Whether this is for the scene-stealing Colin Farrell for his Penguin, Zoë Kravitz’ sensual and suave Catwoman, or Paul Dano’s electric Riddler, they’re the best bet for the ensemble. Robert Pattinson’s star is on the rise, while Joe Wright’s Jim Gordon is being called the best interpretation of the character by many.

Cons

There are two huge factors that impact The Batman‘s awards prospects: release date and genre. While The Batman kicked off the spring movie season, it also has to compete with awards voters’ short-term memory and a hectic blockbuster calendar. Disney, Sony, and even The Batman‘s distributor Warner Bros. are unloading every blockbuster they had to hold back thanks to COVID-19. It would be easy for The Batman to get lost in the shuffle if it has to compete with films like Avatar 2 or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever below-the-line, both of which are releasing right as awards voters start prepping their ballots.

Additionally, superheroes don’t have good luck at the Oscars. While The Batman may have the critical support seen by films like Black Panther and Joker, it admittedly lacks the same societal impact of both. If it doesn’t prove itself early and defiantly in the early season, The Batman could easily end up in similar places as Wonder Woman or Logan as beloved superhero films that simply couldn’t surpass the bias of the Academy.

Above-the-line is going to be an important place for The Batman if it wants to prevail. It’s hard to envision where The Batman wants to stake its claim. It lacks a clear acting contender for the season like Joaquin Phoenix in Joker or Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther, nor does it possess the same passion for its story or directing. Many are praising Reeves’ work as a director and screenwriter, but not to the overwhelming degree that genre filmmakers like George Miller and Guillermo Del Toro have gotten.

The final potential nail in the coffin is that The Batman really has no place to gain momentum. While critically beloved, the critic group that often helps a film gain early awards momentum tends to reward smaller films. The Batman might prove itself too big to gain any love above the line by critics, relegating it to tech categories and industry guilds where it has to compete with much louder, better-timed releases. A runaway below-the-line doesn’t build the same way one above-the-line does, though.

The Batman is one of the best movies of 2022 so far, but with people still catching their breath after the 94th Academy Awards and an entire year of blockbusters ahead, it’s going to be an uphill battle for the comic book movie. The Batman stands a stronger chance below the line than other superhero films with its beloved and praised artisans, but The Batman will have a much harder time securing votes unless it sees a swell of support somewhere specific above the line. Much of The Batman‘s fate will lie in how its competition goes. After all, waiting with bated breath is part of the fun.