This is it. The last call, the Big Kahuna, and the one for all the marbles. It’s the Academy Award for Best Picture. After an extended season filled with dramatic twists and ceremonial changes, ballots have been cast and campaigns have been run. Every film nominated deserves to be here. A film is the work of thousands of people, and that work deserves respect.

In addition to my usual analysis of the ten Best Picture nominees and their chances, I’ll also be giving my final predictions for every category but the shorts. I will link to my original editorials, and add any new commentary if my prediction changed from there. Now, without further ado (and I mean it this time), let’s discuss the 94th Academy Awards!

Belfast 

Nominees: Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas
Scene That Should Win: “Everlasting Love”

Despite some egregious misses such as the lack of an Editing nomination and losing at BAFTA in particular, Belfast has the potential to split the difference in a way that could result in a win. If Belfast can win Best Original Screenplay, it would be following the same path as Spotlight did in 2015, winning Best Picture and a screenplay award alone. Branagh’s overdue narrative is a factor, but more importantly, Belfast fits into two niches that the two Best Picture frontrunners. Not only is it more “crowd-pleasing” than The Power of the Dog, but Belfast has the benefit of a theatrical release over CODA coming from a streamer. If the older members of the category want to flex their muscles, Belfast is the most obvious film to win.

CODA 

Nominees: Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger
Scene That Should Win: “Both Sides Now”

As the little indie that could, CODA is going to be breaking multiple records if it manages to win. CODA looks very appealing as the winner, with the most industry wins thanks to the Writers Guild, Screen Actors Guild, and the BAFTA Screenplay award. CODA‘s biggest hurdle is its lack of technical mentions. It only managed three nominations total, with none below the line. CODA would have to win all three of its nominations to justify itself as a winner, but with Troy Kotsur being all but guaranteed Best Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay feeling safe, it’s hard not to see CODA making that history.

Don’t Look Up

Nominees: Adam McKay and Kevin Messick
Scene That Should Win: “We really did have everything, didn’t we?”

Adam McKay’s scathing satire had the early potential to make itself a vibrant winner but ultimately missed out in too many categories to justify thinking it’ll win. Not having acting nominations or director nominations hurts it, while there’s a non-zero chance it leaves Dolby Theater empty-handed. McKay’s miss in Director is particularly noteworthy, as he made it in for both of his previous efforts. Despite a last-minute surge to potentially take Best Original Screenplay, Don’t Look Up shouldn’t expect to take the top prize as well.

Drive My Car

Nominees: Teruhisa Yamamoto
Scene That Should Win: “You know the ending?” 

The nomination in Best Picture was always the reward for Drive My Car, even if it may be the film that elicits the most passion in its supporters. Drive My Car will likely win International Feature, so those who want to spread the love among nominees will likely vote for it there rather than Best Picture. While there is little statistical indication that Drive My Car could win, one can never underestimate raw passion. If Drive My Car‘s Ryusuke Hamaguchi surprises in both Adapted Screenplay and Director, it will defy all logic in the best way.

Dune

Nominees: Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter
Scene That Should Win: Fall of House Atreides

Dune‘s technical sweep that would’ve motivated a true Best Picture campaign came to a grinding halt when Denis Villeneuve missed in Best Director. Unless Dune surprises in Best Adapted Screenplay, which there isn’t much reason to expect, Dune is dead on arrival in Best Picture. It can’t even follow the same path as 2012 winner Argo, which had the security of Screenplay and Editing to fall back on. Dune‘s going to need a sweep not seen since Lord of the Rings: Return of the King below-the-line, and the evidence just isn’t there to anticipate that.

King Richard 

Nominees: Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith
Scene That Should Win: Final Tennis Match 

There’s been a gut instinct that I’d been feeling since the ACE Eddies about King Richard. I had been contemplating a scenario where King Richard goes with Best Actor for Will Smith and Best Editing, where a surprise Original Screenplay win also occurs. Those three would’ve made a dangerous combination for a Best Picture case, where King Richard takes the crowd-pleasing, theatrical release slot that Belfast has. I’ve backed away from this theory for now, as I’m less sure on even its Editing win, but that nagging feeling remains even as I bet against it and King Richard.

Licorice Pizza

Nominees: Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson
Scene That Should Win: Opening Night

With no below-the-line or acting nominations, Licorice Pizza is the nominee that is most likely in last place to win. Not even its previously guaranteed prize of Best Original Screenplay is still in play. Both Belfast and Don’t Look Up are angling to make it their win for the evening. Paul Thomas Anderson’s coming-of-age comedy has seen its fair share of controversy as well, so there’s little reason to expect a Licorice Pizza on Oscar’s menu.

Nightmare Alley 

Nominees: Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper
Scene That Should Win: Dorrie’s Summoning 

The surprise inclusion of the Best Picture race, Nightmare Alley feels more like an afterglow nomination for the industry’s beloved Guillermo del Toro. Nightmare Alley‘s luscious below-the-line work, from its production design and costumes to cinematography, means that it is likely one of the most supported below-the-line. Whether or not that’s enough to overcome the other branches is one thing, but Nightmare Alley will likely have to be satisfied with the nomination.

The Power of the Dog

Nominees: Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier
Scene That Should Win: “It just feels good to not be alone.” 

The Power of the Dog is the undisputed critic favorite to win. Jane Campion’s Western went from anointed frontrunner to fighting for every inch though, with the history facing it being just a little too high a hurdle for me. While Campion’s directing win is practically sealed, The Power of the Dog is looking at a scenario where it wins just that. I don’t expect it to win anything below-the-line or an acting win, forcing Best Adapted Screenplay to be its sole victory. If it loses there, which BAFTA and WGA make likely, then The Power of the Dog might just prove too divisive for the entire Academy to vote for.

West Side Story

Nominees: Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger
Scene That Should Win: “America”

West Side Story‘s faced some significant hiccups in this awards season, but Oscar nomination morning gave it a shot in the arm to make it within the top five to contend. Spielberg’s first musical received plenty of love below the line, and Ariana DeBose’s unanimous victory in Supporting Actress gives it at least one win going in. If West Side Story starts to sweep below the line, or Spielberg manages to upset in Best Director, then West Side Story has a potent narrative to form on Oscar night. As of right now though, West Side Story will just be missing the cut.

Currently, it is between three films; the crowd-pleasing theatrical Belfast, the heartwarming streamer CODA, and the artistically bold The Power of the Dog, with King Richard and West Side Story potentially waiting in the wings. All three have major pros and cons to making a case, but I think I’ll lean slightly towards CODA as of today. While going 3-for-3 and missing everywhere below the line hurts it, CODA has the exact wins it needs.

Part of determining the Best Picture is figuring out the rest of the narrative. With the benefit of hindsight, I will also be giving my final predictions and any new commentary.

Best Director

• Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
• Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car 
• Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza 
• Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog 
• Steven Spielberg – West Side Story 

Best Actress

• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
• Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer 

SAG and Critics Choice went with Chastain. However, recent insights with industry experts have revealed that Cruz’s performance in Parallel Mothers has impressed voters far more than the season so far would indicate. I’ll keep Chastain, but it feels like an upset is boiling beneath the edge.

Best Actor

• Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
• Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! 
• Will Smith – King Richard
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Supporting Actress

• Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
• Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
• Judi Dench – Belfast
• Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
• Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

Best Supporting Actor

• Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
• Troy Kotsur – CODA
• Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
• J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

Best Original Screenplay

• Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
• Adam McKay, David Sirota – Don’t Look Up
• Zach Baylin – King Richard
• Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
• Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier – The Worst Person in the World

I have never and will never feel confident about this, as shown by my decision to change to Don’t Look Up. The win at WGA combined with this category’s tendency to go for high-concept films (think Get Out and Her) gives it an edge.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Sian Heder – CODA 
• Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe – Drive My Car
• Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth – Dune 
• Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter 
• Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Best Animated Feature

• Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino, Clark Spencer – Encanto
• Jonas Pher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen, Charlotte De La Gournerie – Flee
• Enrico Casarosa, Andrea Warren – Luca 
• Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Kurt Albrecht – The Mitchells vs. the Machines 
• Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer, Peter Del Vecho – Raya and the Last Dragon

Time to be bold. Scandals for Disney’s lack of action regarding Florida’s Don’t Say Gay Bill resulted just as Academy voting opened. Netflix and The Mitchells vs. The Machines struck while the iron was hot, with its openly queer lead and unambiguously pro-LGBT marketing giving it the story edge. Combining that with domination at the Annies makes me think it’s time for David to beat Goliath.

Best International Feature

• Drive My Car (Japan) 
• Flee (Denmark)
• The Hand of God (Italy)
• Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
• The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

Best Documentary Feature

• Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy, Nathan Truesdell – Ascension 
• Stanely Nelson, Traci A. Curry – Attica
• Jonas Pher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen, Charlotte De La Gournerie – Flee
• Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent, David Dinerstein – Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
• Rintu Thomas, Sushmit Ghosh – Writing with Fire

Best Original Score

• Nicholas Britell – Don’t Look Up
• Hans Zimmer – Dune 
• Germaine Franco – Encanto 
• Alberto Iglesias – Parallel Mothers
• Jonny Greenwood – The Power of the Dog

Best Original Song

• DIXSON, Beyoncé Knowles-Carter – “Be Alive” from King Richard 
• Lin-Manuel Miranda – “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto 
• Van Morrison – “Down to Joy” from Belfast
• Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell – “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
• Diane Warren – “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days

I’m still sticking with the Bond song, but chatter around Los Angeles and love for Lin-Manuel Miranda gives me the slightest of unease for not going the other way.

Best Sound

• Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather, Niv Adiri – Belfast 
• Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, Ron Bartlett – Dune
• Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey, Mark Taylor – No Time to Die
• Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie, Tara Webb – The Power of the Dog
• Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Shawn Murphy – West Side Story

Best Production Design

• Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos – Dune
• Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau – Nightmare Alley 
• Grant Major, Amber Richards – The Power of the Dog
• Stefan Dechant, Nancy Haigh – The Tragedy of Macbeth
• Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo – West Side Story

A victory at BAFTA for Dune cements its chances of victory in Production Design, beating its biggest competitors Nightmare Alley and West Side Story. The former could still sneak in, though.

Best Cinematography

• Greig Fraser – Dune 
• Dan Lausten – Nightmare Alley 
• Ari Wegener – The Power of the Dog 
• Bruno Delbonnel – The Tragedy of Macbeth
• Janusz Kamiński – West Side Story 

Dune has won every major cinematography award, with the ASC being the last chance for any film to have stopped it. Ari Wegener’s potential to make history for The Power of the Dog is her sole strength going in. Her loss at the ASC means that breaking history is all she has going for her.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Mike Marino, Stacey Morris, Carla Farmer – Coming 2 America
• Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne, Julia Vernon – Cruella
• Donald Mowat, Love Larson, Eva von Bahr – Dune
• Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Justin Raleigh – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock, Frederic Aspiras – House of Gucci

When the stats don’t favor someone, go for the story. Jessica Chastain’s transformative makeup in The Eyes of Tammy Faye fits recent winners to a T. The actress’ public support for the makeup artists just as voting opens could help get more eyes on her team.

Best Costume Design

• Jenny Beavan – Cruella
• Massimo Cantin, Parrini, Jacqueline Durran – Cyrano
• Jacqueline West, Bob Morgan – Dune
• Luis Sequeira – Nightmare Alley 
• Paul Tazewell – West Side Story 

Best Film Editing

• Hank Corwin – Don’t Look Up
• Joe Walker – Dune
• Pamela Martin – King Richard
• Peter Sciberras – The Power of the Dog
• Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum – tick, tick…BOOM! 

An interesting stat I just learned caused me to remove King Richard: No Editing winner has won without a sound nomination. With that important stat, Dune‘s loss at ACE Eddies, and category’s tendency to do most editing over best (although it happens to be both this year), I’m predicting the shortlisted tick, tick…BOOM! upsetting all the Best Picture nominees.

Best Visual Effects

• Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, Gerd Nefzer – Dune
• Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, Dan Sudick – Free Guy
• Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner, Chris Corbould – No Time to Die
• Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker, Dan Oliver – Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
• Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, Dan Sudick – Spider-Man: No Way Home

Phenixx Gaming is everywhere you are. Follow us on Facebook, TikTok, Twitter, YouTube, and Instagram.

Also, if you’d like to join the Phenixx Gaming team, check out our recruitment article for details on working with us.

Phenixx Gaming is proud to be a Humble Partner! Purchases made through our affiliate links support our writers and charity!