94th Academy Awards Predictions

While filmmaking is a collaborative effort, every team needs a team leader. Someone not just to make important decisions, but bring out the best of every actor, cameraperson, and editor behind the scenes. The Academy Award for Best Director is one of the most highlighted and respected awards in the industry. Kicking off this week with one of the most important races of the night, it’s time to talk about the 94th Academy Awards!

Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

Scene That Proves It: “Everlasting Love”

Kenneth Branagh has been nominated for eight Academy Awards, and amazingly in seven different categories. Branagh’s semi-autobiographical Belfast is a more subdued and tricky nomination for Best Director, his second in the category. Branagh is something of an overdue industry veteran, with thirty years of quietly beloved work under his belt. It’s unlikely he’ll be able to surpass the momentum of Jane Campion, especially with his miss on the home turf of BAFTA. However, Belfast‘s status as a Best Picture contender could bolster him if it’s winning.

Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car

Scene That Should Win: Discovering the affair

Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s work in Drive My Car isn’t flashy or visually overwhelming like other nominees, but that’s precisely why it ought to win. Directing a film as purposefully slow and methodical as Drive My Car takes a master’s hand, which Hamaguchi expertly displays. The raw passion I personally feel for his direction could manifest with other Academy members, especially given its inclusion in Best Picture. While there’s no real reason to believe that he’ll win against Campion here, many said the same thing about Bong Joon-Ho’s victory in 2019. Although it helps that Joon-Ho tied at Critics Choice, which Hamaguchi didn’t manage to do.

Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

Scene That Should Win: Backwards Downhill

Another overdue director that emerged in the 1990s, Paul Thomas Anderson’s own autobiography of Licorice Pizza doesn’t have a lot in its corner. Licorice Pizza is far more likely to be rewarded in Best Original Screenplay of its three nominations. Anderson’s narrative is stronger there than it is in Director, where he’s only been nominated twice before now. The lack of any below-the-line nominations also hurts his chances here.

Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Scene That Should Win: “Those hides were mine!’

Jane Campion winning Best Director for The Power of the Dog is one of the clearest calls of the night. Not only did she direct a Best Picture frontrunner, but Campion’s been nominated and won for every award she’s needed. Wins at the DGA, BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice mean that she’s got every prize she needs. The Power of the Dog additionally has the advantage of the precursor factor, being well ahead of everyone else in that regard. Despite being a previous winner for writing, Campion’s final advantage is her overdue factor, having lost in 1993 to fellow nominee Steven Spielberg.

Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

Scene That Should Win: “America”

Steven Spielberg’s passion project and modern masterpiece is West Side Story, an undeniable return to form that has gotten directors wins before. Spielberg has been an active and beloved part of the industry for decades, and he’s one of the few that many are rooting for to get a third Oscar. If Campion hadn’t had such a powerful domination of the precursors so far, Spielberg would be a genuine threat. West Side Story‘s underperformance and Spielberg getting another chance next year for his own autobiopic The Fabelmans means that it’s unlikely this will be his third.

If there’s a “safe” category at this awards ceremony, it’s Jane Campion winning for Best Director. There is no logical reason to bet against her, nor are there any gut instincts telling me to go somewhere else. The Power of the Dog being a Best Picture frontrunner cements this, as Campion will potentially make history as the fourth woman to win Best Director and the first to do it back-to-back with another.

Will Win: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Could Win: Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
Should Win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
Should’ve Been Nominated: Denis Villeneuve – Dune