94th Academy Awards Predictions - Best Original Screenplay

The initial plan was to wait for the Writers Guild Awards to confirm that it was finally time for Paul Thomas Anderson to win an Oscar for Licorice Pizza. Then they happened, and Original Screenplay went from a fairly simple category to one of the most chaotic races for Oscar evening. Let’s get into a combination of reading precursor history, voting narratives, and good old-fashioned gut instinct to parse through the most interesting race of the evening.

Belfast

Nominees: Kenneth Branagh
Scene That Should Win: “If they can’t understand ya, it’s because they’re not listening.”

Belfast has multiple factors in its favor and one very heavy factor against it. Kenneth Branagh is long overdue for an Oscar, with his coming-of-age film being his eighth nomination in a thirty-year career. Additionally, Belfast won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards, while being snubbed at the WGA means it didn’t have to lose against fellow nominees. If Belfast was going to win Original Screenplay, why did it lose on its home turf at BAFTA to Licorice Pizza? That’s such a notorious loss that it cemented Belfast‘s loss before the WGA weighed in.

Don’t Look Up

Nominees: Adam McKay, David Sirota
Scene That Should Win: “You’re gonna die alone.”

Adam McKay and David Sirota’s eviscerating script for Don’t Look Up was one where many expected the nomination to be the reward. McKay is a past winner and a three-time winner, so there wasn’t a real narrative or incentive for him to win for the climate disaster flick. Then Don’t Look Up won the WGA Award, beating out the heavy favorite Licorice Pizza in an award many perceived as PTA having in the bag. It’s such a wild card victory in a race that had none that one can’t count out Don’t Look Up repeating that success on Oscar evening.

King Richard

Nominees: Zach Baylin
Scene That Should Win: “I wrote me a 78-page plan for their whole career before they was even born.”

While the undeniable 5th place in the race, I have a strange gut feeling about King Richard. The inspiring sports drama has not picked up any screenplay awards this season, with Best Actor frontrunner Will Smith absorbing much of the oxygen in the race. Yet if King Richard wants to win, an upset here could make it happen. History dictates that the winner of Best Original Screenplay only needs to be nominated at WGA, which King Richard has been. Actor, Editing, and a potential Screenplay upset sounds like a promising recipe, even if this season hasn’t given me the logical reasoning to follow this narrative.

Licorice Pizza

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson
Scene That Should Win: “Do you know who I am?”

Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for 11 Academy nominations, with five of those being for his screenplays. Licorice Pizza is the kind of relaxing, light-hearted, deeply-personal biographical film that used to win this award. Paul Thomas Anderson is by far the most overdue person in this category specifically, cemented by his win at BAFTA. However, his losses at both Critics Choice and WGA are devastating to the point that no amount of overdue love or quality can logically be overcome.

The Worst Person in the World

Nominees: Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Scene That Should Win: Abstain

I had intended to watch The Worst Person in the World before writing this, but ultimately I never found the time or opportunity. What I can say is that The Worst Person in the World was a genuine surprise in this category, making it in over higher-profile screenplays like The French Dispatch and Being the Ricardos. That type of undeniable, unpredictable passion, combined with the chaotic state of the race, could propel The Worst Person in the World winning Original Screenplay in yet another Oscar night surprise.

As the most unpredictable race of the evening, every contender in Best Original Screenplay has a convincing argument for and against this award. Belfast has the most awards to its name, but neither of its big ones are industry awards. Licorice Pizza has the narrative and BAFTA on its side, but had the biggest loss at WGA. Don’t Look Up, King Richard, and The Worst Person in the World are all in a dead heat to be the spoiler choice. In the end, I have to give a slight edge to Branagh, as it’s just less likely for Belfast to go home empty-handed and gains more with a win here than Licorice Pizza does.

Will Win: Belfast
Could Win: Licorice Pizza
Should Win: Don’t Look Up
Should’ve Been Nominated: Mass