94th Academy Awards Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay

She who wins the Adapted Screenplay award shall win the Oscar. That’s the essential vibe of this race. Both Best Picture frontrunners, CODA and The Power of the Dog, are hoping to use this to take the race. It’s the tale of two very different films and screenplays, with a statistically feasible but realistically unlikely third contender available as well. However you’re imagining Oscar night goes down, the results in Adapted Screenplay will be needed for it to be taken seriously.

CODA

Nominees: Sian Heder
Scene That Deserved The Win: “What’re you gonna do about it, Frank?”

In one corner, Sian Heder’s breezy and emotionally fulfilling screenplay for CODA, adapted by herself and the soft favorite for the reward. CODA‘s screenplay has been the benefit of some powerful momentum in the final moments of awards season, winning two major screenplay prizes at BAFTA and the Writers Guild Awards. The industry’s writers seem to be on CODA‘s side, although The Power of the Dog was notably ineligible at the latter organization. If CODA wants to win the Best Picture prize, it needs to win here. Fortunately, there’s not much to indicate it won’t.

Drive My Car

Nominees: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
Scene That Deserved The Win: “We must keep on living.”

A three-hour short story adapted into a play within a film, Drive My Car is a thematically complex and rich screenplay that could have potentially followed a similar path as Parasite in 2019. The passion to get Drive My Car into Best Picture (despite no other precursors) indicates there’s an intense pride and admiration for the film. An all but guaranteed victory in International Feature means that Drive My Car would have to be looking at the chance for huge wins, including here, and that’s simply not the state of the race.

Dune

Nominees: Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth
Scene That Should Win: “We honor your body’s water, and return your gift in kind.”

Dune‘s screenplay, both for its sparse nature and its status as a Part I, is the least likely of the contenders to win. The thematic work of its source novel and the troubled adaptation history gives the screenwriting team of Dune some major respect points. The adapted category is more likely to nominate genre work, but Dune‘s potential floundering in previously guaranteed technical categories and a miss in Best Director mean it’s unlikely to translate into a rare sci-fi win.

The Lost Daughter

Nominees: Maggie Gyllenhaal
Scene That Should Win: “No I took him.”

Maggie Gyllenhaal is a respected actor within the industry, with The Lost Daughter marking her as one of the most potentially interesting actors-turned-filmmakers to emerge. It helps that some could perceive her as overdue, given her only single nomination despite great performances in films like Secretary (2003) and Sherrybaby (2006). Gyllenhaal’s script received the USC Scripter Award, beating The Power of the Dog before even CODA started its awards season breakthrough. While the last three Scripter Awards failed to match with Oscar, the previous 8 had matched winner-for-winner. The Lost Daughter could be the film to return to that streak, although it’s unlikely as the aforementioned third place.

The Power of the Dog

Nominees: Jane Campion
Scene That Should Win: “His Nibs will be joining us for dinner.”

In the beginning, many perceived Jane Campion as competing for Best Director while getting Adapted Screenplay as a potential consolation prize for The Power of the Dog. However, since some intense losses as USC Scripter, the Golden Globes, and BAFTA, The Power of the Dog is looking harder to justify from a statistical standpoint. It doesn’t help that The Power of the Dog isn’t the traditional type of screenplay to get rewards, given its slow pace and lack of flashy dialogue. Still, it helps that this race is still the closest thing that The Power of the Dog has to a third win on Oscar night, which will be vital to its Best Picture chances.

For a variety of reasons, The Power of the Dog and CODA need to win this award if either wants to win the Best Picture prize. CODA needs to go three-for-three, while The Power of the Dog would have to rely on some shaky tech categories if it wants to pull off what The Graduate did in 1969 (winning Best Picture with just Best Director). Stats may be on CODA‘s side, but once you throw in the Best Picture of it all plus the pair not competing at the WGA make it a race far too close to call with certainty.

Will Win: CODA
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Drive My Car
Should’ve Been Nominated: West Side Story