94th Academy Awards Predictions

What was once the most chaotic race has quickly evolved into one of simple expectations. The final acting race for this site to cover is Best Lead Actress, where three past winners and two beloved modern movie stars are competing for the prize. While the hardware of the season is still spread out quite heftily, there’s plenty of room for a surprise despite how clear things look one week out.

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Scene That Should Win: “I want to put my arm around you.”

The current frontrunner of the race, now three-time nominee Jessica Chastain’s heartrending work in The Eyes of Tammy Faye has all the makings of a winner. The biopic genre is one that the Academy loves to reward, and Chastain’s physically transformative performance is one that goes big and flashy. She’s been on the receiving end of the vital industry award of the Screen Actors Guild Award, as well as the Critics Choice. Chastain’s overdue for her win, and The Eyes of Tammy Faye is a worthy film to reward for her blossoming career.

Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

Scene That Should Win: “I Left for Three Years”

While Olivia Colman’s performance in The Lost Daughter arguably surpasses the work she accomplished for her win in The Favourite, it’s unlikely that Colman can position herself in any notable fashion here. An omission at BAFTA, which would’ve been her best shot at a victory, hurts her. That being said, Colman has surprised before. Her unexpected victory over Glenn Close in 2018 shocked the entire industry after all. The Lost Daughter has surprising strength with her co-star Jessie Buckley’s nomination, so if there’s room for a surprise Colman can do it again.

Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

Scene That Should Win: First Email Confirmation

Cruz’s own surprise nomination for her latest collaboration with longtime friend Pedro Almodóvar, Parallel Mothers, should’ve been more anticipated. Despite missing at most major guilds, Cruz had won the first major award of the season with her Volpi Cup victory in September. The growing international branch could see a rally for the only non-English nominee in the acting races. Cruz and Parallel Mothers don’t have the visible industry support in rewards, but that same logic kept people from seeing her nomination coming in the first place.

Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

Scene That Should Win: First dress rehearsal

After her surprise victory at the Golden Globes, Being the Ricardos‘ Nicole Kidman went from a hopeful nominee to brief frontrunner for the win. While that initial reward never manifested in other circles, Kidman has lots of goodwill within the industry. With her fifth nomination and fourth in Best Actress, many hope that Kidman earns a second in her career. Being the Ricardos could very well be that win, although the loss at SAG and miss at BAFTA hurt her chances for that to occur.

Kristen Stewart – Spencer

Scene That Should Win: “Attention! I’ll be the major, you be the soldiers.”

At one point the critical darling, and still arguably so with the most critic wins, Kristen Stewart’s performance in Spencer would have to break some powerful precedent to win. Her omission at SAG is a devastating loss, while she’s the sole nominee of the five to be her film’s sole nomination. Stewart’s work as Princess Diana is some of the most interesting work in the biopic genre, but it’s difficult to imagine Stewart breaking records with Chastain and Kidman having established themselves in the race already.

While Chastain has the soft lead, there’s still a variety of ways this could go. Golden Globe winner Nicole Kidman, the international rallying point for Penélope Cruz, a beloved Brit that has a tendency to surprise that is Olivia Colman, and the critical darling Kristen Stewart could all sneak in based purely on gut instinct. Chastain snatching the SAG Award and the Critics Choice away from Stewart shows she’s got support, especially with BAFTA being a non-factor this year. Lead Actress remains the narrowest of the four acting categories, but Chastain’s got a careful edge here.

Will Win: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could Win: Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
Should Win: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Should’ve Been Nominated: Tessa Thompson – Passing