94th Academy Awards Predictions

Everyone loves a good leading man, and this year’s crop of Best Actor nominees in particular are a star-studded bunch. Its especially impressive given that these actors are becoming characters, rather than creating them. TV icons, sports legends, and theater heroes are some of the performances being honored. With an overdue veteran, two past winners, and two beloved men at the peak of their rise, the thrilling Best Actor race is sure to be one to remember.

Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos

Scene That Proves It: “Cuban Pete”

The absolute worst part about Javier Bardem’s nomination for Being the Ricardos – aside from the blatant brownface and his arrogant dismissal of it – is the mediocrity of his performance. While Bardem’s talent has always been great, his performance as Desi Arnez is more an imitation than creation. There are moments where Bardem gets to shine, particularly when he gets a chance to make use of his incredible talent for physical acting. However, it’s far from the best work from an actor who has already won. It’s unlikely that Being the Ricardos will be the film where he collects a second statue.

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

Scene That Should Win: “I like my dirt.”

When you’re the leading man of the Best Picture frontrunner, you’re automatically in contention for a win. The Power of the Dog rests firmly on the shoulders of Benedict Cumberbatch, whose having a banner year with his performance here and in Spider-Man: No Way Home, with Doctor Strange: The Multiverse of Madness right around the corner. The second nomination of his career, Cumberbatch’s narrative is compelling as a beloved modern movie star. Unfortunately, he has lost every chance he could have to win to Will Smith. The loss at BAFTA particularly hurts his odds, as other winners have gotten by on BAFTA alone and still secured Oscars. Despite leading in precursors, Cumberbatch has no industry hardware to his name.

Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM!

Scene That Should Win: “Why”

I’ll be honest – Andrew Garfield’s expressive magnum opus in tick, tick…BOOM! is my preference for the win. Garfield’s performance could be seen as showy, and as such a young actor many perceive him having another chance in the future (which is probably true). Yet tick, tick…BOOM! cannot work without Garfield’s performance, which is an effortless juggling act as he brings Jonathan Larson back to life. If Garfield had won (or Smith had lost) at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, there might have been a gap for him to breakthrough. Sadly, without the breathing room to sneak in, it’s likely Garfield will have to wait for his time despite his Golden Globe win.

Will Smith – King Richard

Scene That Should Win: “You’re gonna be representing every Black girl on earth…”

The Fresh Prince has the classic recipe for a career Academy Award. King Richard is the type of inspiring biopic that awards voters eat up, and Smith’s portrayal of Richard Williams is one of the most effective of his impressive career. He manages a complicated juggling act between his movie star persona and the quiet, introspective gravitas that few directors seem to be willing to capitalize on. With wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG, plus thirty years of goodwill and public love, it’s hard to imagine King Richard not being the one to finally get Will Smith an Oscar.

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Scene That Should Win: “Ring the alarm bell!”

Denzel Washington is a legend, and The Tragedy of Macbeth ranks among his most interesting and quality work. He speaks Shakespeare with a ferocity and determination that impresses, delivering the complicated dialogue in his own style. Denzel is a reliable vote-getter at the Academy (this is his 9th acting nomination) but this isn’t the performance for his third statuette. It hasn’t collected the nominations nor wins needed, and as a two-time winner it’s hard to call him overdue. Denzel will likely join the esteemed club of three-time Academy Award winners one day, but The Tragedy of Macbeth will not be the one to let him do so.

While neither is my horse, this is undeniably a two-pony race between Will Smith and Benedict Cumberbatch. Will Smith’s got the strongest narrative, with King Richard being the perfect capstone to honor his legacy to the industry. Benedict Cumberbatch and Andrew Garfield could theoretically slip through, but this is Smith’s prize to lose. It’s very much the right way to reward Smith, an actor who has an undeniable level of charisma and enthusiasm, for a career and performance worth celebrating.

Will Win: Will Smith – King Richard
Could Win: Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM!
Should’ve Been Nominated: Simon Rex – Red Rocket