94th Academy Award Predictions

The last of the below-the-line races to be covered, Best Cinematography is facing a particular dilemma until this coming Sunday (03/20) when the American Society of Cinematographers gives their input. There is a lot riding on this category, from Dune‘s hopes for a technical sweep to The Power of the Dog‘s winning Best Picture, plus the possible boost to others below. In one of the more famous above-the-line categories, several respected artisans may get a chance to earn their first fabled Oscar.

Dune

Nominee: Greig Fraser
Scene That Should Win: Assassination Attempt

Greig Fraser is having a perfect moment in order to win his first Academy Award for Dune. A victory last weekend at BAFTA gives Dune precedent, with 8 out of the last 10 BAFTA winners going on to win at the Oscars. Additionally, Fraser himself is receiving immense praise for his work on The Batman, giving him a moment in the sun. He doesn’t necessarily need the ASC to win here, but it would certainly help his case. The bigger issue for Fraser and Dune is the foreknowledge that his first win could be right around the corner for The Batman or Dune: Part Two.

Nightmare Alley

Nominee: Dan Lausten
Scene That Should Win: Dorrie’s Ghost

Dan Lausten’s new collaboration with Guillermo Del Toro is Nightmare Alley, his second Academy Award nomination. The Danish cinematographer’s unique style melds perfectly with Del Toro’s, and his craftwork is likely what helped push Nightmare Alley over the line to get into Best Picture. Nightmare Alley had the potential to be a serious technical sweeper before, but unless ASC rallies for it then Lausten will have to settle for his second nomination and no trophy.

The Power of the Dog

Nominee: Ari Wegner
Scene That Should Win: Shared Cigarette

Ari Wegener is only the second woman cinematographer to be nominated, particularly for her work on The Power of the Dog. Wegener’s cinematography does reflect the type of work the branch occasionally rewards for more subtle but beautiful work such as Hugo or Life of Pi. She could potentially make history if she wins, while The Power of the Dog likely needs this category if it is to get any wins outside of Best Picture and Director. The Power of the Dog is fortunate to have the Critics Choice on its side, with the group likewise matching 8 for 10 in the last decade.

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Nominee: Bruno Delbonnel
Scene That Should Win: Fleance’s Escape

Bruno Delbonnel has been nominated a total of six times for the Academy Awards, with The Tragedy of Macbeth being the sixth. His minimalist but stark work in the Shakespeare adaptation is the best in the field. Additionally, Delbonnel has the advantage of being well overdue for a win. That being said, it’s never a good sign if Shakespeare loses at BAFTA, and The Tragedy of Macbeth is unlikely to be the upset at the ASC.

West Side Story

Nominee: Janusz Kamiński

Scene That Should Win: “Prologue”

When West Side Story missed at the ASC several weeks ago, people became concerned about the musical’s Best Picture prospects. Likely sneaking in by the skin of its teeth over Belfast, Janusz Kamiński is facing an uphill battle to beat out his other nominees. While Kamiński’s cinematography in West Side Story is some of his best, it’s unlikely that this will be the veteran’s third Oscar win. Not only is he the sole previous winner of the group, but he’s the most nominated by a fair amount. If there were a rally for his third win, it would’ve manifested itself by now.

The ASC is going to be important for a number of reasons. Their record with the Academy is spotty, only matching 6 out of 10 times over the last decade. The key is that Dune doesn’t truly need to win ASC, but The Power of the Dog does. If ASC goes with anyone other than Dune or The Power of the Dog, it leans in the favor of the flashy sci-fi epic ever so slightly, despite the historical barrier Wegener would be breaking.

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Should’ve Been Nominated: Passing