94th Academy Awards Predictions

I waited to write about this so that I could see what BAFTA told us about the Editing race. With the not-nominated No Time to Die winning, we’re left with a far wider and less certain race than we started the week with. I’ll break it down briefly later, but this category is one of the ones cut from the live show in favor of pre-recording. This is an incredibly ironic and idiotic decision, dismissing the very editors who have to place those segments into the show to begin with. I could and have expressed my anger at this decision before, I’ll let the editors speak for themselves.

Don’t Look Up

Nominees: Hank Corwin
Scene That Should Win: “Just Look Up”

As a long-time collaborator of Adam McKay, Hank Corwin’s been a repeat nominee for Best Editing for his last three McKay projects. Losing to tick, tick…BOOM! at the ACE Eddies is a huge blow against Don’t Look Up, likely forcing Corwin to wait his turn. It’s a particular shame, as Don’t Look Up moves with a pace and tone that makes it the best of Corwin’s dramatic work, so as long as McKay and Corwin keep working together he’ll find his time again.

Dune

Nominees: Joe Walker
Scene That Should Win: “A war in my name”

As one of the categories that many thought Dune had locked in, its two devastating losses at the ACE Eddies and the BAFTAs make this a particularly brutal snub. While Dune‘s flashy science fiction elements have been favorites for nominees in the past, it’s not clear how Dune could push ahead for a win. The lack of Denis Villeneuve in Best Director hurts Dune even more. Perhaps that should’ve been the first chink in Dune‘s armor.

King Richard

Nominees: Pamela Martin
Scene That Should Win: “Iced”

A victory at the ACE Eddies makes King Richard look particularly strong for a winner. If King Richard wants to win the Best Picture reward, a win here and for Will Smith in Best Actor could be quite a tempting combination in the expanded era. It helps that King Richard‘s biggest competition in this category, Dune, has faced significant setbacks in the industry awards. The tennis matches are the exact kind of showy editing that the branch tends to like. In a race without a frontrunner the sole ACE Eddie win might be all it needs.

The Power of the Dog

Nominees: Peter Sciberras
Scene That Should Win: “Pie eyed! She was smashed!”

To be frank, The Power of the Dog only needed to be nominated here to win. While its losses at BAFTA and the ACE Eddies mean that The Power of the Dog is unlikely to win, this nomination only bolsters its Best Picture chances. Every Best Picture winner has been nominated for Best Editing for the last decade, with the sole exception being in 2014. Sciberras’ work is a bit too subtle and nuanced for the editor’s branch, which tends to like bigger moments. The nomination will have to be the reward in this category alone.

tick, tick…BOOM!

Nominees: Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum
Scene That Should Win: “Therapy”

While tick, tick…BOOM!‘s Oscar nomination was a surprise, its victory over Best Picture nominees Don’t Look Up and Licorice Pizza was an even greater triumph. Lin-Manuel Miranda’s directorial debut is in the lucky position that, having defeated Don’t Look Up already, it essentially gets a bi-round to take on the winner of the other three nominees. tick, tick…BOOM! features flashy editing work that the branch tends to reward, with the only knock against it being its lack of a Best Picture nomination. Over the last decade, every winner of this category has been a Best Picture nominee with a single exception in 2011.

This is a complicated race. Best Film Editing has the difficult predicament of precursors that have spread the wealth. The combination of Dune‘s losses, a non-nominated winner at BAFTA, and two flashy films in the race, it could go either way. While I still ultimately call it for King Richard today, I can’t escape a gut feeling I have about tick, tick…BOOM!. The film was most likely the hypothetical 11th nominee, and a win in Editing could be a way to reward the musical.

Will Win: King Richard
Could Win: tick, tick…BOOM!
Should Win: tick, tick…BOOM!
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Last Duel