94th Academy Awards Predictions - Makeup and Hairstyling

Of all races to make or break the Oscar pool, Makeup & Hairstyling is a strange beast. However, that’s where we are. There are three films in contention that have really made a strong case for themselves, in addition to a technical juggernaut that could still play the upset to break some precedent. As one of the first races where I genuinely don’t know which horse to back yet, this one is going to take some thinking. The fools at the Academy board don’t want to air it, one of the most competitive races of the night.

Coming 2 America

Nominees: Mike Marino, Stacey Morris, Carla Farmer
Outfit That Should Win: Mr. Clarence

Coming 2 America is the kind of nominee that would’ve been a surprise to anyone that wasn’t already in the industry. It’s the type of work that only artisans tend to recognize, even if bigger profile movies are out there in the hunt. Coming 2 America has a great advantage as it completely dominated the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylist Guild Awards. Eddie Murphy’s long-awaited sequel was nominated for three and won three, including Contemporary Make-Up, Contemporary Hair Styling, and Special Effects Makeup (beating out Dune in the latter). The correlation between the MUAHS and Oscar is iffy in the Contemporary category, but Coming 2 America is absolutely worth keeping in the hunt despite that.

Cruella

Nominees: Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne, Julia Vernon
Outfit That Should Win: Cruella

While Cruella lost at BAFTA and only won one award at the MUAHS, its win is arguably the most important category. The Best Period and/or Character Make-Up has a much stronger correlation with an Oscar than the Contemporary category. Of the last 8 years, the winner of this category won the Academy Award. Cruella features some of the showy and fashionable work that the category tends to like, although its loss to the not-nominated Being the Ricardos hurts its chances. The genre could also be a factor, as the category tends to overwhelming favor biopics like The Eyes of Tammy Faye, but Cruella got a powerful precedent and the Disney machine at its back that could overcome it.

Dune

Nominees: Donald Mowat, Love Larson, Eva von Bahr
Outfit That Should Win: Harkonnen Nobles

Ironic that one of Dune‘s best technical aspects is the Oscar tech category where it faces the worst odds. The cold truth is that it shouldn’t have lost the Special Effects award at MUAHS, especially given its elaborate makeup work for the Harkonnen characters. It doesn’t help that Dune lost in the Period and/or Character categories, nor that it lost at BAFTAs. It’s the type of fascinating and otherworldly makeup that films like Suicide Squad and Mad Max: Fury Road used to win their Oscars. However, Dune‘s losses so far make it an unlikely winner and an undeserving loser.

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Nominees: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Justin Raleigh
Outfit That Should Win: Tammy Faye

The Eyes of Tammy Faye didn’t have a good showing at the MUAHS. Where it does receive a boost is that The Eyes of Tammy Faye did win at BAFTA, but more importantly, it fits the Oscar mold. Transformative biopic makeup, such as The Iron Lady or Darkest Hour, is the exact type of work that the branch loves to reward. Jessica Chastain is genuinely unrecognizable in The Eyes of Tammy Faye (especially physically) to the point that all the stats in the world may not be able to stop the makeup team responsible for doing that.

House of Gucci

Nominees: Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock, Frederic Aspiras
Outfit That Should Win: Paolo Gucci

House of Gucci‘s inclusion in Makeup but not Costumes is weird. There’s not much more to say other than that, as House of Gucci has had an underwhelming performance the entire season. Losses at BAFTA, MUAHS, and Critics Choice have been major blows to the fashion film, and House of Gucci would need a genuine miracle to pull a win this late into the game.

Coming 2 America won the most guild awards, Cruella has the award that matches the most, and The Eyes of Tammy Faye fits the mold of a traditional winner to a T. With Dune and House of Gucci, possibly the two highest-profile nominees, being essentially non-factors, who wins? At this moment, I’ll be backing another Disney horse on this one. Cruella having Costume Design locked in the bag combined with winning the most important award at the MUAHS is enough to give it just the edge to tip over…today.

Will Win: Cruella
Could Win: Coming 2 America
Should Win: Dune
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Green Knight