94th Academy Awards Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

Closing this week’s coverage of the Oscar race is the Best Supporting Actor race. A beloved race for many film fans, the Best Supporting Actor race is often where people get to see long-beloved actors that never got a moment in the sunshine. Brad Pitt, Sam Rockwell, and current nominee J.K. Simmons are all examples of the overdue factor kicking in. With four first-time nominees in the race, it’ll be a tight race to see which actor gets the fabled Oscar.

Ciarán Hinds – Belfast

Scene That Should Win: “Riggamarole”

Ciarán Hinds in Belfast is the type of role that would’ve won the Oscar a decade or so ago with ease. A long overdue and beloved character actor with a scene-chewing role in a Best Picture frontrunner, Hinds’ chances based on narrative alone make a compelling case. Were it not for his distinct lack of awards hardware yet (keyword yet) Hinds would be the undeniable frontrunner. The SAG miss in particular hurts though. The last time the Best Supporting Actor winner wasn’t at least nominated at SAG was 2012. Hinds winning at BAFTA could rejuvenate him, but the SAG stat hurts enough to keep him from the runner-up slot.

Troy Kotsur – CODA

Scene That Should Win: “You know why God made farts smell bad?”

Being the winner of the SAG Award, the Gotham Awards, and the runner-up in precursors makes Troy Kotsur a solid frontrunner for CODA. An underdog story for the ages, Kotsur would be making history for his heartfelt and humorous work in CODA as the first male deaf actor to win an acting Oscar, and the second disabled man. Kotsur’s got momentum going towards Oscar night, but if Sunday ends with losses at the Critics Choice and BAFTA (especially if they’re to Smit-McPhee) Kotsur will look much weaker going in.

Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

Scene That Should Win: “I just want to say how nice it not to be alone.”

As a bit of a surprise nominee, Jesse Plemons’ nomination for The Power of the Dog is a sign of just how much strength the Western has. Plemons is an especially fun nominee given his history, acting as something of a good luck charm for films. Plemons has starred in a Best Picture nominee for five consecutive years in a row, with the first in 2017, or since 2015 for non-consecutive years, with his sole film in 2016 not being nominated. While Plemons will likely not be adding to The Power of the Dog‘s win tally, his first nomination (likely not his last) is a fun inclusion.

J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos

Scene That Should Win: “Don’t tell me comedy.”

One of the biggest surprises of Oscar morning, J.K. Simmons sneaking into the Best Supporting Actor race for Being the Ricardos is a weird but nice nomination. With no true precursor love besides a nomination at the Critics Choice, and a fun but admittedly lackluster performance from the veteran character actor, there’s not much to be said about Simmons’ lack of a shot. Even in the unlikely event he’ll win, J.K. Simmons and Being the Ricardos will just have to be happy he’s invited.

Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

Scene That Should Win: Walking Through Camp

The frontrunner until SAG, Kodi Smit-McPhee has an interesting narrative for his performance in The Power of the Dog. In addition to his loss at SAG, Smit-McPhee has the disadvantage of his age. The Oscars tend to avoid rewarding younger actors, believing they’ll have time in their career later, in a non-steamroll season. Smit-McPhee absolutely has time to rally if he can pull off a double win at Critics Choice and BAFTA. The latter especially will be important, as it adds an industry award aside from the hit-or-miss Golden Globe he won in December.

Much like the Costume Design category, much will be decided on this coming Sunday at the Critics Choice and BAFTA. While Kotsur makes for an inspiring leader and frontrunner so far, Kodi Smit-McPhee or Ciarán Hinds could add fuel to their fires at BAFTA. A win at BAFTA is indicative of success for an important reason. Many actors, from Mark Rylance in 2015 to Anthony Hopkins just last year have won the Oscar with just BAFTA on their side. As early as Monday morning, readers may get a chance to point and laugh at this article if the race changes.

Will Win: Troy Kotsur – CODA
Could Win: Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
Should Win: Troy Kotsur – CODA
Should’ve Been Nominated: Robin de Jesus – tick, tick…BOOM!