94th Academy Awards Predictions

I’ll admit, this category is one of the many that is highly susceptible to change once the final prediction blog comes out. While the Costume Designer Guild (CDG) gives a helpful glimpse into where the branch feels, both BAFTA and Critics Choice being on Sunday have the potential to tilt the balance a new way. The unfortunate aspect of this extended awards season is that things are more spread out, and I had to kill my darlings to determine which ones I started to predict on blindly. The upside is that Costume Design is a fun race to talk about, since it’s one of the rare aspects of film where “It’s just really pretty” is a perfectly adequate form of criticism. After all, who doesn’t love a chance to appreciate flair?

Cruella

Nominees: Jenny Beavan
Outfit That Should Win: Cruella’s Garbage Dress

Unsurprisingly, the fashion-centric Cruella is a natural frontrunner for the Costume Design award. Each outfit in the film, from Cruella’s own flamboyant designs to her everyday clothing sparks with originality and flair. Cruella is bolstered by the costume design being a genuine element of the story rather than just a crafts element. The Costume Design branch has also been quite friendly to more genre-savvy films like Cruella, giving the award to Fantastic Beasts in 2016 and Mad Max: Fury Road over more traditional period pieces. That element alone could take Cruella over the top, but the fact that it’s well ahead in precursor awards (including a win in its genre at the CDG) cements its place as an outsider frontrunner befitting the Disney villainess.

Cyrano

Nominee: Massimo Cantini Parrini, Jacqueline Durran
Outfit That Should Win: Roxanne’s Green Dress

The sole nomination for the exemplary period musical Cyrano, Massimo Parrini, and Jacqueline Durran have delivered a traditional but stellar wardrobe to feast on. The latter especially helps Cyrano‘s case, as Durran has won this very award twice in the last decade out of eight total nominations. The poor release strategy and a loss at the CDG give Cyrano fewer legs to stand on than it would like. However, a surprise victory at BAFTA could be the shot in the arm necessary to make it a spoiler candidate.

Dune

Nominees: Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan
Outfit That Should Win: Stillsuits

Much like other technical categories that split by genre, Dune got a verifiable bi-round to cement its position as the soft frontrunner. While the CDG’s Period Piece category is where the majority of Costume Design winners come from, genre pieces like Dune have been known to win when they win the Sci-Fi category. Previous winners of both the Oscar and the CDG Sci-Fi/Fantasy include Black Panther, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Alice in Wonderland. Two of those three were Best Picture nominees like Dune, giving it the edge it may need if it wishes to outperform Cruella. Combine that with a small but crucial overdue status for the three-time nominee Jacqueline West, and Dune looks like it could add Costume Design to its tally.

Nightmare Alley

Nominees: Luis Sequeira
Costume That Should Win: Molly’s Red Coat

Nightmare Alley is in luck, as a 1920’s period piece and Best Picture nominee are both things the Costume Design branch has eaten up in the past. The Great Gatsby, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and Fantastic Beasts are all films that fit a similar aesthetic mold as Nightmare Alley. Despite its loss at the CDG Awards, a win at BAFTA or Critics Choice could be the beginning of a rally for Guillermo Del Toro’s latest film. While Nightmare Alley doesn’t have quite the same level of momentum that Cruella and Dune have, if it beats both on Sunday the race can get flipped on its face.

West Side Story

Nominees: Paul Tazewell
Outfit That Should Win: Anita’s “America” Dress

If West Side Story wants to win Best Picture, where it’s been fighting Dune for fourth place, a win in Costume Designs is an absolute must. Unfortunately for West Side Story, that’s unlikely, missing a vital nomination at BAFTA and a loss at CDG. That leaves only the Critics Choice, which consists of no overlap with the Academy’s voters, as West Side Story‘s only chance for a rebound. Tazewell’s got the narrative to break history on his side, with him being the first male African-American ever nominated in Costume Design, and being the biggest profile after Dune certainly helps his case.

Much of this race will be decided on Sunday, with both the Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs capable of putting out the fires of Cruella and Dune. The CDG’s verdict is a helpful one, but it is not ironclad. Jojo Rabbit and The Shape of Water are recent films that won there that ended up losing at the Oscars. While Cruella has numbers and Dune has prestige, a surprise rush of support on Sunday for Cyrano or Nightmare Alley could flip this race in a new direction entirely.

Will Win: Cruella
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: Cruella
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Harder They Fall