94th Academy Awards Predictions - Supporting Actress

A legend of the industry, an actress far overdue for her first nomination, a character actress breaking through big, and two up-and-coming stars. This is the Best Supporting Actress category. In the first of our predictions on the above-the-line acting races, I’ll take a look at some of the surprises and what they might mean for the actresses being celebrated.

Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter

Scene That Should Win: Seeing the kids again

A surprise nominee with very little precursor support, Buckley’s inclusion for her fantastic work in The Lost Daughter sits as the actress’ first. She was nominated for only a handful of critics’ awards until a nomination on her home turf at BAFTA. Buckley’s talent in the film is undeniable, having the unfortunate task of playing many of the more distasteful elements of her co-star Olivia Colman’s past. She carries that responsibility incredibly well, making her nomination for The Lost Daughter one worth lauding.

Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

Scene That Should Win: “America”

With wins at the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild, it’s hard to topple the campaign that Ariana DeBose has built for her work in West Side Story. She is making history, and will continue to do so if she wins. She was the first Afro-Latina to be nominated in any acting category, and she’d be the first winner as well. She is also the first openly queer woman of color to be nominated and would be the first to win. The character of “Anita” would also be joining the ranks of Vito Corleone and The Joker as a character to bring two different actors an Academy Award. A final pin in DeBose’s crown is that this is a way to reward West Side Story, a beloved Best Picture nominee within the industry but one with much greater competition elsewhere.

Judi Dench – Belfast

Scene That Should Win: “Go now. Don’t look back.”

One of the surprises of nomination morning was that Judi Dench would be the representative of Belfast, rather than Catriona Balfe. Dench is an Academy favorite, with Belfast being her eighth nomination in her career. In the rare chance to see Dench in a more restrained film, Belfast is some of her strongest work in years. Still, it’s hard to see quite how or where Dench could sneak in to overcome her other entries. She’ll likely just be taking solace in being the second oldest nominee in the category in history, as well as the third oldest acting nominee ever.

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

Scene That Should Win: Dinner Performance

Dunst’s first Oscar nomination should’ve come decades ago, but The Power of the Dog is a worthy performance for her career regardless. It’s a strong mixture of the showy, A-grade acting that the Academy likes to reward, as well as the nuances of the character in dialogue or chemistry with co-stars that prove Dunst’s talents. She is by far the most overdue in the category, and The Power of the Dog is such a dominant force in Best Picture which only bolsters her chances. Losing SAG and the Golden Globes to the same person is a hurtful blow, but there’s absolutely a chance she can come back with a resurgence between now and March 27th.

Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

Scene That Should Win: “I’m here. I been here.”

While Aunjanue Ellis’ stirring work in King Richard was an early frontrunner out of Telluride, she’s become a comfortable third place since then. With her co-star Will Smith eating up much of the attention in the acting race, it’ll have to be off his coattails to get a win. Much like Dunst, there’s still space for Ellis to sneak her way into the race and overcome DeBose’s early lead. King Richard being a stealth player in Best Picture only cements her underdog status, although with Will Smith as the easiest way to reward the film, it’d take an overwhelming performance for Ellis to be a coattail winner and not just a coattail nominee.

This is the “safest” of the four acting races and there is plenty of room for Dunst or Ellis to take over the narrative from Ariana DeBose. That being said, Ariana DeBose is the strongest case for the win. History is on her side, particularly with her SAG and Golden Globe wins, plus playing a character another actress has won for, all of which greatly benefits her. The history that is against her, such as all the demographic precedence she’d be making, only cements her case to provide a story that dreams really can come true. It’s hard to imagine DeBose losing at this point, and she’d make a worthy winner as she makes history in more ways than one.

Will Win: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Could Win: Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Should’ve Been Nominated: Ruth Negga – Passing