Full disclosure, as of writing this, I have only seen one of the five nominees. The Hand of God, Drive My Car, and The Worst Person in the World ought to be on streaming by the time of publication though. I aim to catch up with them as soon as possible. Thankfully, you don’t necessarily need to see the films to predict winning, so here’s a look into how the Best International Feature race might go down.

Drive My Car

Director: Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Country: Japan

Drive My Car has this in the bag. The last time a nominee for Best Picture lost the Best International Feature was 1995, when Il Postino wasn’t nominated for Best International Feature. Counting nominees in both, one has to go back to 1971 when The Emigrants was only nominated in both without winning. This film is nominated in Best Director and Adapted Screenplay, where it’ll be much harder for Drive My Car to break through. International Feature is a great way for voters to reward Drive My Car without removing their votes in other races. This is probably the safest lock of the evening.

Flee

Director: Jonas Poher Rasmussen
Country: Denmark 

If there’s a very, very distant runner-up in the category, it’s Denmark’s Flee. The moving documentary about a gay Afghani refugee is one of the most stirring films of the year. As the only film I’ve actually seen so far, it is my personal preference. While it’s hard to stop the precedent on Drive My Car‘s side, Flee‘s historic threepeat of nominations in Animated Feature, Documentary, and International Feature could cause a sudden surge of support to give it a win somewhere. The most realistic option would be in Documentary, and that’s obvious too. If voters want to reward Flee somewhere, it will likely be there over International Feature.

The Hand of God

Director: Paolo Sorrentino
Country: Italy 

Having previously won in 2013 for The Great Beauty, Paolo Sorrentino and The Hand of God aren’t newcomers to the category like the other nominees. The Hand of God admittedly hasn’t inspired the most love, with its only major prize being Venice’s Grand Lion. The coming-of-age tale wouldn’t have necessarily needed to capture the critical love or industry support to win this category any other year. But with the Best Picture nominee Drive My Car and the historic Flee in the running, it’s hard to make a case for The Hand of God that doesn’t rely on gut feelings or personal biases.

Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

Director: Pawo Choyning Dorji
Country: Bhutan 

As a bit of a surprise nominee, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom got into the race over more prominent shortlisted films like Iran’s A Hero from two-time winner Asghar Farhadi or Mexico’s Prayers for the Stolen from DGA nominee Tatiana Huezo. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom was an underground contender, and if it weren’t for the giant influence of Drive My Car there could be an argument made for it as a sneaky surprise. Unfortunately, that’s unlikely to occur, leaving Bhutan to hopefully be satisfied with their country’s first nomination ever as the reward.

The Worst Person in the World

Director: Joachim Trier
Country: Norway

Heartbreaking: The Worst Person in the World got two Oscar nominations. I stole that joke from Twitter. Anyway, the fact that The Worst Person in the World managed to make a surprise entry into Original Screenplay in addition to Best International Feature shows the film is widely loved. Based purely on a passion vote, there’s a version where The Worst Person in the World could compete with Drive My Car and hold its own. Having to share the upset slot with Flee and beating history itself is too great a challenge for The Worst Person in the World though, so a nomination will have to suffice.

Drive My Car is going to win. It’s not only a Best Picture nominee but it’s gotten in Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay as well. It’s a critical darling, and it’s such an obvious win that many could justify awarding it here and spreading the love in its other categories elsewhere. Flee and The Worst Person in the World would’ve been a competition if it was all three competing just in Best International Feature. But it’s not – Drive My Car is an all-around success, to the point that it’ll easily overcome minute advantages any of the other four nominees would have.

Will Win: Drive My Car
Could Win: The Worst Person in the World
Should Win: Abstain
Should’ve Been Nominated: Lamb

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