The Best Animated Feature Oscar has always been dominated by Disney and Pixar, with few mix-ups. The House of Mouse has three representatives in the mix this year, while Phil Lord and Christopher Miller are seeking to repeat their 2018 success with the backing of Netflix. NEON’s Flee had a historic threepeat as well, so it’s a surprisingly close race. I’ll talk about each individual film’s merits and chances of winning, as well as a bit of my own preference and the precedent of the category.

Encanto

Nominees: Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino, Clark Spencer

Scene That Should Win: “We Don’t Talk About Bruno”

Unless it’s a year with a different runaway winner, never bet against Disney/Pixar. Encanto is the latest example of this trend, emerging as the clear frontrunner. The celebration of Colombian music and culture is the latest in a long line of Disney winners in the vein of Frozen and Coco. While it might not have the prestige of its two chief competitors, Encanto does have the Disney machine backing it and the cultural zeitgeist on its side. The only knock against it is that fellow Disney film Raya and the Last Dragon led the Annie Awards in nominations, but the March release is unlikely to steal Encanto‘s spotlight enough to matter.

Flee 

Nominees: Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen, Charlotte De La Gournerie

Scene That Should Win: “I liked to wear dresses.”

Flee is too idiosyncratic and unique of a nominee not to be considered the runner-up. The challenge for Flee was always going to be going three-for-three, achieving a historic first by landing in International Feature and Documentary Feature in addition to Animated Feature. It’s unlikely that Flee will be its win of the three, but the fact that it’s beloved enough to land in all three might be able to rally the passion in voters enough to overcome Disney’s industry favoritism. It’s an underdog, but it’s also the exact kind of film that makes for a David and Goliath match.

Luca

Nominees: Enrico Casarosa, Andrea Warren

Scene That Should Win: Portorosso Cup

While some consider Luca to be the more trivial of the Pixar entries, that’s not to deny the appeal of its sincerity and earnestness. Luca has a wholesome, light tone that makes it as warm and loveable as its Italian setting, while its coming-of-age tale is a great addition to the Pixar canon. That being said, Luca was released too early in the year and doesn’t possess quite the gravitas to win, making its nomination the reward.

The Mitchells vs. The Machines

Nominees: Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Kurt Albrecht

Scene That Should Win: “The Twilight of Man”

Once again, Lord and Miller have given audiences one of the best-animated films this century with The Mitchells vs. The Machines. While its premise may cause some eye-rolls, The Mitchells vs. The Machines is a romp of a good time thanks to its humor and eye-catching visual effects. In the realm of animation, it’s by far the best of the nominees, a fascinating combination of visual gags and setpieces worth praising. Unfortunately, The Mitchells vs. The Machines‘ glaring omission of Golden Globe nomination combined with Flee overtaking the underdog narrative means that it’s unlikely that lightning will strike twice for the duo. It’s a close third place though, with The Mitchells vs. The Machines still being the leader in critic wins.

Raya and the Last Dragon

Nominees: Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer, Peter Del Vecho

Scene That Should Win: Baby Chase

The Annie Award leader in nominations, Raya and the Last Dragon is genuinely primed to turn the race on its face. There are several factors going against Raya and the Last Dragon that keep its prospects limited. A March release date will have to contend with the infamously short memory of voters, while it has to compete with its sister films Encanto and Luca, each of which has seemed to rally more passion than Raya and the Last Dragon. It doesn’t have the critical rallying cries of The Mitchells vs. The Machines or Flee either. If that Annie Award tally translates into beating everyone, this article will look quite foolish with the benefit of hypothetical hindsight.

While our first editorial was for a race with a clean sweep, Animated Feature is our first real competition. Realistically, there are two genuinely plausible winners at the moment (Encanto or Flee) with The Mitchells vs. The Machines and Raya and the Last Dragon each capable of sneaking into the race. While I’m currently betting on the Disney/Pixar machine taking yet another trophy, the thrill of the awards race from an outsider’s perspective is never feeling sure until the envelope is opened.

Will Win: Encanto 

Could Win: Flee

Should Win: Flee

Should’ve Been Nominated: Sing 2

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