Awards Season Check-Up - Phase 1 is Done, Phase 2 Ahead

With the conclusion of AFI Fest on November 14, that’s an official wrap on the film festival season and Phase 1 of the 2021 awards season. We are now in a brief interlude between AFI Fest and the announcement of the National Board of Review’s winners at the month’s end. As such, it’s worth taking a moment to assess what the state of the race is and what to look forward to.

As a reminder, awards season can be broken up into roughly four phases. Phase 1 is the festival circuit, where everyone who wants to compete for awards makes at least one debut. Phase 2 is when the critic groups start to announce their own winners, up to and often past nomination morning for the Academy Awards. Phase 2 is important to narrow down the competition. Hundreds of films are eligible in any given year, so critic groups help to share a spotlight on lesser-known films or give a seal of approval to the bigger contenders.

Being the early frontrunner can be a blessing or curse, but Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast has become the elusive film to keep both praise and heat. The film has won the Audience Award at both TIFF and Middleburg while maintaining a strong 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 78% on Metacritic. Combine those factors with a solid debut at the indie box office along with being a soft frontrunner in the Best Supporting Actress category with Catriona Balfe, and Belfast still looks to have a long awards season life.

That being said, another heavy contender has emerged in King Richard, the biopic featuring megastar Will Smith as the tennis coach father of Serena and Venus Williams. Despite initially being seen as a Smith or bust vehicle, King Richard has been described as a crowdpleaser that can compete across the board. That includes offering up a challenge to the aforementioned Balfe in Aunajanue Ellis. The film will be debuting in theaters and on HBO Max this Friday (11/19/2021), and its performance with general audiences will be a key moment in its trajectory.

Speaking of box office successes, Dune‘s triumphant arrival in cinemas three weeks ago signals that it has the merit and the weight to warrant awards success. Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epic has grossed $352 million, including a box office opening at $41 million. That, plus its solid 82% on Rotten Tomatoes and 74% on Metacritic, give it what it needs to be the rare genre film to break into the notoriously anti-genre Academy.

It helps that Dune is a massive technical marvel, helmed by past nominee Denis Villeneuve. He’s already part of the club, having been nominated in 2016 for Arrival, so he can be expected to be making waves in the Director category like past nominees George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road) and Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water). Even if it misses on the grand prize, expect it to sweep many technical categories such as Production Design and Sound while fighting for top spots in Director, Adapted Screenplay, and Cinematography.

With the multiple critics groups releasing their nominations in December, there are a couple of key contenders that can use this opportunity to cement a frontrunner status. Kristen Stewart’s spot-on portrayal of Princess Diana in Spencer has been getting consistent praise, so you can expect to see her name pop up throughout December. There may be the occasional upset, such as Jessica Chastain’s transformative role in The Eyes of Tammy Faye or critical darling and previous winner Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter.

In other races, I expect many critic groups to rally around Jane Campion and Mike Mills for The Power of the Dog and C’mon C’mon respectively in the director races. They tend to rally around more idiosyncratic films like these two, rather than the higher-profile releases like Belfast, King Richard, and Dune. Examples of this in the past include both successful winners like Chloe Zhao for Nomadland and non-factor winners like Lynne Ramsay for You Were Never Really Here.

The other races are much wider, with regards to critics. It’s difficult to imagine Will Smith losing for King Richard once the industry awards start weighing in, but the narrative that wins an Oscar often loses the critical support. If I had to take a guess, Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) and Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon C’mon) are the main contenders to emerge during critic season. The bulk of critics may go for a Lead Actor outside the box, such as Nicholas Cage for Pig or Clifton Collins Jr. for Jockey, much like past sweepers such as Ethan Hawke and Toni Colette who came up empty come Oscar morning.

The Supporting Actor race remains as elusive and unclear as it was last check-up, especially with the most obvious contender (overdue Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza) being confirmed to have too little screentime to warrant a frontrunner status. Personally, I’m betting on Ben Affleck’s turn in The Tender Bar to emerge at the end of the season. Many that have seen it are calling it his career-best and much goodwill is being built for the headline-gathering star. Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds will also represent Belfast, although whether it’s the shiny new leading man or the veteran character that will get the lion’s share.

In terms of our schedule, the first major critic group to announce winners is the National Board of Review. Although they always kick-off Phase 2, their prediction record is a more mixed bag. In recent years, 9 of their last 11 Best Film winners have earned Best Picture nominations, but only one (2018 for Green Book) has won the grand prize. Their records across the board face a similar level of consistency, 8/11 & 1/11 in Actor, 6/11 & 3/11 in Actress, and 6/11 & 0/11 for Director, so NBR is not the best indicator for winners.

A more helpful critic group will be announcing the next day, the Critics Choice Association or Hollywood Critics Association. There’ve been many jokes at the HCA’s expense for their large slate of nominees, with some races reaching as high as seven or eight nominees total in traditionally five-person categories. They tend to cast a wide net, with some joking they’re attempting to predict the Oscars with their ballots. Hyperbole aside, the size of the HCA’s prediction means that they can offer the best vision on what to narrow down when the real voting begins.

In terms of what hasn’t been officially seen yet, there only remain three such potential contenders. These contenders include Don’t Look Up, the star-studded sci-fi satire by Academy favorite Adam McKay, West Side Story, Steven Spielberg’s remake of the iconic, Best Picture-winning musical, and Nightmare Alley, the remake of a beloved noir classic helmed by recent Best Picture winner Guillermo del Toro.

It’s a long road from here, and nobody knows what to expect. As I’ve always said, most things at this point are fun speculation and prediction. Everyone will have their favorites, including yours truly. You’ll notice that I haven’t mentioned a film I gave a rave review to, which I happen to think is only getting in Picture, Actor, and Sound. Consider every film mentioned here, and what eventually does end up securing the awards gold, as a mere recommendation of what to seek out. It’s all in good fun, after all.